Uptober is only one day away and optimism is growing in Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.
As the industry reaches its 10 months of year, the integrity of the 10 key internal, macro, technology and on-chain signaling suggests that the crypto market could rise significantly in October.
Will you live in “Uptober” in October? Signals of 10 suggest a forward rally
The first promising signs come from market signals where liquidity, emotional and seasonal trends are favored by bulls.
1. Bitcoin’s historic October pattern
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From a seasonal perspective, October has been a bullish month for Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency averaged 21.89% returns, marking the 10th month in the last 12 years.
What is noteworthy is that there are several indications emerging this time that mean that this bullish trend could reach a wider market.
2. SEC ETF deadline
In October, the SEC will need to determine multiple Altcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This could serve as a major catalyst for market sentiment.
“A massive few weeks of Spot Crypto ETFS. The SEC final deadline approaches many filings. This week, the deadline will follow at the Canary Spot LTC ETF. It will follow decisions regarding Sol, Doge, XRP, ADA and HBAR ETF (although the SEC can approve all or all of these).
Approval could likely inject fresh capital into the market, causing possible price increases. Despite the historical bearish seasonality of some altcoins like XRP, these catalysts could negate past trends.
3. Surge in stable supply to record high prices
Additionally, Defilama’s data showed that Stablecoin’s total market capitalization reached a new high of nearly $297 million. This milestone often reflects increased ecosystem liquidity as a ramp of ridiculous investment. Increases in supply are typically correlated with market expansion, positioning October due to potential inflows.
4. Fade retail hype
Beyond fluidity, the sentiment indicator gives a fierce twist of the opposite. Searching for terms such as “Crypto”, “Altcoin”, and “Bitcoin”. Low social attention at this stage is considered bullish, suggesting that the market is still early in the cycle before mainstream investors return.
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“Our data shows the same pattern many times. Impulsive investors are always too late. They exchange, coins, or “Who is Nakamoto Satellite?” Alphractal founder Joao Wedson, claims that after a big move, they cry about operations, losses, and the market is very different.
5. Expectations for Fed rate reduction
Macroeconomic conditions are likely to be favorable for the crypto market next month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced the Fed at an 89.3% chance of reducing fees at its October meeting after a recent cut in September.
In the case of crypto, another high probability of a FRB rate reduction is a bullish macro signal. Lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional safe assets such as bonds and increase the demand for risky assets, including Bitcoin and altcoin.
Cheap borrowing increases liquidity in the financial market. This is often converted into capital flowing through the crypto.
6. Resuming global M2 correlation
Additionally, Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, noted that Bitcoin had previously tracked the Global M2 Money Supply with a 12-week delay. However, this correlation was destroyed on July 16th.
This comes as the US Treasury Department has increased liquidity by issuing $500 billion in bonds to restructure the general Treasury account. PAL suggested that the accounts were “replenished” well.
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Therefore, he expects fluid drainage to fade. This allows Bitcoin to follow M2 again.
7. Bitcoin RSI Signal
From a technical standpoint, Joe Consorty observed that Bitcoin’s 30-day relative strength index (RSI) was approaching the level seen before Q4 in April 2025 and September 2024. This excess condition indicates a signal that gains momentum.
8. Altcoin Market Bullish Structure
In the case of Altcoins, analysts draw similarities between the current market structure and the patterns seen in 2017 and 2021, both leading to large gatherings.
“AltSeason will take place in the fourth quarter. Be prepared for Aptober, Moonvember and Pumpcember,” predicted analyst Gordon.
Furthermore, trader Merlijn pointed out that Altcoins had just formed a “cup and handle” pattern. In technical analysis, this pattern is considered a bullish continuation setup. Once the handle is complete, it often indicates the end of the integration phase and the possibility of a significant upward breakout.
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“What happened? Parabolic maniac. Trillions of hats are destiny,” he said.
9. On-chain signal highlights the holder’s conviction
Finally, on-chain signals promote further optimism for up-to-be rally. Analyst DarkFost revealed that Wholecoiners’ exchange inflows have a hit cycle drop.
This metric tracking addresses that hold at least one full Bitcoin suggests that the holder is holding the coin.
“In Binance, after the average annual inflow peaked at near 11,500 BTC in November 2023, the figure fell to about 7,000 BTC, marking the new cycle as low. DarkFost posted.
Additionally, profit gains among long-term investors have declined, with holders refraining from selling. On-chain data including destroyed coin days (CDD) and used output profit margin (SOPR) shows a drop in cooling activity and sales pressure. This will strengthen the integrity of the bull market and point to an even higher rise.
10. MVRV ratio drops to neutral zone
Finally, the MVRV (value of realised value from market value) ratio, which compares the market value of Bitcoin with realised value, was withdrawn to 2.0.
“Historically, this zone doesn’t reflect any panic or euphoria. Investors still sit in healthy profits, but the market is cooled from overheated conditions. Past cycles show that once MVRVs have surged early, and then consolidating this range, the trend often resets before entering the strongest expansion phase.
Taken together, these signals suggest that convictions between holders are increasing, sales pressure is declining, and the crypto market is gaining more profits in October. Still, risks like regulatory setbacks and macroeconomic shocks remain important elements to watch.
