Bitcoin (BTC) has been mostly flat this week, hovering around $121,300 after posting a modest 1% weekly gain. On the surface, Bitcoin’s price movements appear to be uneventful, but a closer look at the key chart structure and investor behavior suggests that one more correction may be needed before the next big breakout occurs.
Several key indicators, both on the charts and on-chain, point to a deeper pullback forming beneath the surface, even as new long-term goals are taking shape.
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Chart pattern suggests cooling phase before next leg up
Bitcoin’s current setup is shaping up to be a classic reversal structure that has historically preceded large rallies. Although the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is still developing, it shows early signs of symmetry between the left and right halves, suggesting that the market may be in the process of building the foundations for its next advancement.
However, short-term traders are eyeing a developing slope pattern that moves slightly higher (forming an upward wedge-like structure), indicating potential depletion near the ceiling and more immediate bearishness.
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At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures market momentum, has begun to diverge from prices. From July to early October, the Bitcoin price hit new highs while the RSI hit new highs, which is often a bearish divergence that indicates a decline in buying power.
This combination of a maturing chart pattern, a bearish wedge-like formation and weakening momentum suggests that Bitcoin price may first test lower levels and fully form on the right side before attempting a breakout.
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Whales and long-term holders increase selling pressure
On-chain data supports technical configuration. The exchange whale ratio, which measures the proportion of exchange inflows from the largest 10 addresses, jumped to 0.54, its highest level since August 1. This typically indicates an increase in whale deposits on exchanges related to short-term selling or portfolio rebalancing.
Meanwhile, long-term investors turned net sellers. Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks monthly accumulations or distributions, plummeted from +3,082 BTC on September 28th to -23,461 BTC on October 9th. This movement above 26,000 BTC shows clear profit taking by veteran holders.
The combination of whale inflows and long-term selling suggests that major companies are expecting short-term volatility before confidence returns, which fits the picture of a developing pattern rather than a completed one.
Major Bitcoin price levels to watch
Based on projections from current settings, Bitcoin’s broader structure is still targeting around $147,700. For this move to materialize, the market must first stabilize and clear above $126,100 (an all-time high), near the neckline level of the ongoing inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
Previous short-term support lies between $117,900, $114,700, and $111,800. Retaining these zones will keep the structure intact. A break below $107,200 invalidates the bullish prediction, but a recovery to $126,100 could trigger a move towards $147,700, marking the beginning of Bitcoin’s next bull run.
For now, the message is simple. A pullback may occur before a push. The structure remains bullish, but patience will determine who seizes the next breakout. Again, the Bitcoin price structure based on this pattern will remain bullish unless BTC falls below $107,200.
