Cardano (ADA) is currently down nearly 20% in the past 24 hours, extending its 30-day decline to 26.2%. The crash sent ADA to a multi-week low, but the token has since recovered to around $0.65.
Driving this recovery attempt are two major groups: whales and retail traders, both of whom have increased their exposure as prices fall. But will it be possible to overcome the weak technical signals and cause a real rebound?
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Whales and retailers build faith together
While much of the market panicked, Cardano Whale quietly continued to add. According to Santiment data, holdings of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have increased from 13.06 billion on October 10 to 13.2 billion today. This is an increase of 140 million ADA, equivalent to approximately $89.6 million at the current price of $0.64.
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This rally started right before the crash and hasn’t slowed down since (there were no sell-offs during the crash). Consistency during the overall market decline suggests that these large holders are expecting stability or an eventual rebound.
Money flow indexes (MFIs), which track the amount of money moving in and out of assets based on price and volume, support this story. MFIs have formed even higher lows, indicating capital inflows despite falling prices.
This indicates that retail traders appear to be entering alongside the whales, increasing their purchasing power which could be the basis for a gradual recovery in Cardano prices.
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Three technical risks still haunt Cardano’s price action
Despite encouraging gains, three technical risks remain.
The Smart Money Index (SMI), which measures the specific positioning of professional traders, has fallen sharply and has yet to recover. Despite the slight rebound, the move remains too weak to support traders hoping for a sustained recovery or rebound.
Similarly, the RSI, which measures the strength of buying and selling momentum, does not show a bullish divergence. ADA price hit new lows during the crash, but RSI hit even new lows. This means that momentum has not yet reversed.
The RSI is at 30, indicating that ADA is oversold, but absent a divergence, the rebound could be slower than other top altcoins.
Adding to this alarm, ADA’s downtrend line continues to form a bearish triangle pattern on the daily chart. Without an opposing bullish RSI divergence, this structure suggests downside risks still exist, and this could potentially be a fragile rebound unless buyers hold on to a higher close.
Currently, Cardano price is trading around $0.64. A daily close above $0.68 could prompt a short-term recovery in ADA price towards $0.76 and $0.89, but a drop below $0.61 could lead to a further decline to $0.55.
