In 2025, the cryptocurrency market has entered the data-defined era. For years, investors have relied on halving cycles, on-chain, and TVL charts to read sentiment. However, the framework has been reorganized.
This year, while CEX spot trading volume has fallen by 27.7%, DEX activity has increased by 25.3%, with Henry counting more than 240,000 crypto millionaires worldwide. As digital treasuries and financial institutions pour in billions of dollars, the question in 2026 will no longer be where capital flows, but which on-chain metrics will most reliably reveal the next direction of the market.
To shed light on these changes, BeInCrypto spoke with the leadership team at Dune, whose analytics platform processes billions of blockchain events every day.
Stablecoins: Winners, Structural Adoption, and Velocity as Key Indicators in 2026
Stablecoins have grown from about $200 billion to $305 billion in 2025, reflecting deeper on-chain utility rather than short-term speculation. Major issuers reveal where institutional liquidity has moved.
According to a Dune-Artemis report, the total stablecoin supply increased by 63% to $225 billion through February, with $35 trillion in transfers processed. While USDT held $146 billion, USDC doubled to $56 billion, Ethena’s USDe reached $6.2 billion. This is evidence that investors prefer yield-backed tokens over speculation.
In an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, experts dismissed Standard Chartered’s claims that stablecoins could drain $1 trillion from banks in emerging countries.
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Risk’s Dominik Schwenter called the change “an evolution, not a crisis,” while Coke Protocol’s Robert Schmidt described it as a “second Bretton Woods” that expands the rails of the digital dollar rather than threatening local banking systems.
“USDC supply has doubled year over year to approximately $80 billion. Ethena’s USDe has increased from approximately $2.4 billion to $14.8 billion, while Plasma, which launched less than a month ago, has already reached $8 billion, ranking fifth in on-chain stablecoin supply. This growth is primarily structural for government bonds, DeFi lending, and RWA payments rather than speculative demand.”
Dune analysts recommend tracking stablecoin velocity (the ratio of trading volume to market capitalization) as the clearest indicator for 2026. This distinguishes between active use and hoarding behavior.
Tokenized RWA: Treasuries dominate, fixed income catches up
Tokenized real-world assets (RWA) solidified their role in 2025 as institutional investors seek higher yields and diversification. Government bonds and fixed income products led the expansion, supported by deeper integration of DeFi.
According to a report by Dune-RWA.xyz, tokenized assets have increased 224% year-to-date by US Treasuries and Bonds. BlackRock’s BUIDL reached $2.2 billion and private credit increased 61% to $15.9 billion.
Analysts said RWA is currently anchoring institutional liquidity and acting as a bridge between DeFi and traditional markets.
“U.S. Treasuries are up 224% year over year on TVL, fixed income is up 171% and private credit has expanded 61% since the beginning of the year to $15.9 billion. These categories are becoming the backbone of the capital market restructuring. Interoperability and composable finance are driving participation.”
Dune’s 2025 RWA report highlights that TVL year-over-year growth and unique holder counts remain the best indicators of institutional traction.
Perpetual DEX Volume and New Risk Thresholds
The annual transaction value of decentralized perpetual contracts has soared to over $2.6 trillion. The concentration of open interest across the top platforms is similar to leverage clusters once seen in concentrated derivatives markets.
Max Shannon of Bitwise told BeInCrypto that if DEXs continue to gain market share, trading volume could reach $20 trillion to $30 trillion within five years. He said leverage and trade churn are fueling growth, with institutional penetration and clearer rules acting as key catalysts.
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“The monthly volume of the PERP market has exceeded $1 trillion. HyperLiquid, which once dominated with over 70% of volume and 90% of open interest, now holds 30% of total volume and 50% of open interest. The Aster and Arbitrum variants of the BNB chain have become new competitors through yield-linked and peer-to-peer derivatives.”
The spike in address concentration correlates with local volatility. Monitoring on-chain open interest compared to total decentralized trading volume could serve as an early warning threshold for systemic risk in 2026.
CEX-DEX liquidity transition: structural rather than temporary
In 2025, centralized and decentralized liquidity began to diverge. CEX deposits averaged $150 billion per month, while DEX trading volume averaged $500 billion, reaching $857 billion in July. This gap is not temporary, but indicates a structural change.
“Hildbee’s dashboard shows that starting in November 2023, DEX trading volume began to exceed CEX. In 2025, decentralized spot monthly trading volume reached $857 billion, compared to peak CEX deposits of nearly $250 billion.”
Analysts interpret this divergence as a long-term rebalancing of liquidity toward permissionless spaces, powered by improvements in user interfaces and institutional storage tools.
ETF flows and on-chain reaction lag
ETF inflows do not appear directly on-chain, but they leave a measurable trace. The correlation between stablecoin movements, Menpool congestion, and gas price increases has become more closely correlated, revealing a near real-time liquidity response.
“Bitcoin ETF currently holds 1,325,000 BTC (approximately 6.65% of supply) worth $149.8 billion, with net inflows of 706,000 BTC since launch. Bitcoin’s absorption rate is around 3.5% annually, while the Ethereum ETF holds 6.75 million ETH (approx. 5.44% of supply) worth $29.2 billion, growing 4.1%. Annualized. Stablecoin expansion remains the quickest reaction on-chain, typically occurring within hours of a change in ETF flows. ”
James, co-founder of Checkonchain Analytics, told BeInCrypto that long-term investors are realizing monthly profits of between $30 billion and $100 billion, and price growth has slowed despite strong demand.
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“Some holders are moving from on-chain to ETFs, but not the majority,” he said. “Inflows from institutional investors remain huge, amounting to tens of billions of dollars. Since October 2024, IBIT has been in the lead and is the only fund that still has steady inflows. The United States now holds approximately 90% of global ETF assets.”
Dune’s ETF dashboard confirms that on-chain liquidity tends to react within hours of major ETF allocations. This positions the stablecoin supply as the cleanest proxy for new inflows.
meme coin dilemma
Memecoins continued to dominate user onboarding in 2025, especially across Solana-based launchpads. But while activity was frenzied, survival rates remained close to zero.
a16z CTO Eddie Lazarin said the “casino-like” trend is undermining the credibility of cryptocurrencies and distracting talent from innovation.
Other VCs argue that meme trading keeps users engaged and on-chain, highlighting the gulf between speculation and practicality that defines the current cycle.
“In 24 hours, approximately 11,600 tokens were issued across the Solana platform. Pump.fun alone hosted 10,704, but only 0.7-0.8% were “staged” into liquidity. Pump.fun maintains approximately 79,600 daily active users, $63 million in daily volume, and generates $602,000 in fees. Token level retention is minimal, but platform level engagement is strong. ”
Data shows that meme coins remain a powerful entry funnel but are unlikely to evolve into a sustainable ecosystem. Platform-level DAU and pricing data are important metrics to monitor.
New NFT entrants continue to increase
Although transaction volumes were low, NFTs maintained their role as an onboarding ramp. Data creation indicates an influx of new users rather than a contraction.
“Unique NFT buyers surged from approximately 49 million in 2024 to more than 173 million in the first 10 months of 2025. Mint trading volume peaked at $78 billion in November 2024 and stabilized at nearly $30 billion monthly. Secondary transactions have been small but consistent, returning to 2021 activity levels.”
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This trend supports NFTs as a continued gateway to cryptocurrencies, although the depth of the secondary market remains limited compared to its peak earlier in the cycle.
DePIN and DeSci: Utility exceeds hype
Beyond tokenization and ETFs, the DePIN and DeSci sectors quietly expanded in 2025. On-chain data suggests that fundamentals, not speculation, are driving adoption.
Naman Kabra, co-founder of NodeOps, said the sector is “not dead, it’s maturing.” He said DePIN’s move from hype to infrastructure mirrors Bitcoin’s early evolution and “weeds out projects that can’t provide real utility.”
Dune’s “Solana DePIN On-Chain Layers” report counts 238,000 active nodes across Helium, Hivemapper, and Render, with on-chain revenue reaching approximately $6 million. Cabra said the sector’s “boring trajectory” points to enduring value as decentralized infrastructure becomes everyday infrastructure.
“Helium Mobile reached 462,064 subscribers and 84,343 nodes, adding more than 10,000 new users weekly. XNET contributors grew 8% to 827 and Nosana processed 2.4 million compute jobs. Hivemapper and Render has shown steady growth. We monitor the number of nodes, contributors, and completed jobs. These are the cleanest demand metrics.”
DePIN’s physical infrastructure growth and DeSci’s research funding model demonstrate the gradual integration of cryptocurrencies into the real-world productivity sector.
The most predictable indicator of 2026: stablecoin supply
When the market cap exceeded $3.5 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance exceeded 62%, one indicator consistently predicted price movements.
“If you track just one on-chain metric in 2026, let it be stablecoin supply. It is the clearest proxy for new capital. Stablecoin growth shows a correlation of about 0.87 with BTC and often leads the rally. Exchange balances represent the dry powder for the next move.”
Stablecoin growth continues to outpace ETF flows and funding rates as predictive metrics, setting the tone for liquidity into 2026.
Conclusion: On-chain data will shape the next wave of cryptocurrencies
Dune’s 2025 analysis depicts a mature market based on data accuracy. Stablecoins remain the backbone of liquidity, RWA institutionalizes yield, and DePIN signals expansion.
As 2026 approaches, on-chain intelligence will become sovereign rather than complementary. The advantage for investors is that they can interpret signals faster and more clearly than the crowd.
