BNB prices have been trending steadily since the October 10th correction. At the time of writing, it was trading around $1,180, down about 1.7% over the past 24 hours. Still, BNB price is still up 27.8% month-on-month. The token has been trading in an unusually narrow range for BNB, and traders are now focused on whether the base near $1,143 can support further upside.
The hesitation comes after weeks of strong gains followed by profit-taking. Still, on-chain data suggests that BNB may have found a local bottom, but whether it is confirmed depends on whether buyers can defend their base and clear the nearest ceiling (resistance).
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Profitability and currency flows suggest accumulation near base
BNB’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares the current market price to the average cost basis of all coins and helps holders identify when they are losing money. Investors are typically making profits when stock prices are high, often near local highs. If the economy subsides, selling pressure will ease, indicating that a foundation may be forming.
On October 7, when BNB’s price reached $1,300, the MVRV ratio peaked at 2.40, indicating a growing profit level. A few days later, during the sharp drop from $1,300 to $1,100 (a 15.7% drop), the ratio bottomed out around 2.00. This is a similar zone to the local low on October 4th, before the 15% rebound from $1,100 to nearly $1,300 in just two days.
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Currently, MVRV is stable around 2.10 and the price is $1,160, suggesting that the market may be forming a local bottom again.
At the same time, exchange outflows, which indicate the number of tokens leaving an exchange, are also increasing. From October 11th to October 15th, the currency outflow amount worsened from -731,363BNB to -798,780BNB, an increase of 9.2% in the outflow amount (approximately 67,000BNB).
This means more holders are moving their tokens out of exchanges, easing short-term selling pressure and suggesting that accumulation may be quietly occurring around the current norm. Also, if you’re looking for a reason to stock up, this new listing scoop might make sense.
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Taken together, these two indicators – declining profitability and increasing outflows – suggest that traders may be building up capital between $1,143 and $1,180 (current prices) and bracing for a possible rebound if support remains solid.
BNB price levels to watch during consolidation
BNB has found stable support around $1,143, the same level that helped the price recover after the October 10 plunge. As long as this level is maintained, it provides a solid foundation for further upside.
On the upside, $1,238 is the first major resistance level, a level that has previously limited BNB price upside. The above resistance zone is relatively thin as BNB has already made new highs in recent weeks. A move above $1,238, which is approximately 4.3% up from current levels, could once again confirm bullish dominance and upside potential.
If this happens, the next BNB price target will be $1,318. A breakout could pave the way for a retest of the all-time high near $1,374.
However, if we break out of the $1,143 support (strong base), the next downside levels to watch are $1,084 and $991. Losing these may indicate that the recovery setup has failed.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, which measures the strength of buyers and sellers by comparing price movements to moving averages, remains slightly negative. This means sellers have a slight advantage, but the pressure is waning.
BNB price appears to be nearing a decision point as profitability stabilizes, currency outflows increase and prices remain near support. The next rally could be confirmed if it breaks above $1,238, but until that happens, any move will have to wait.
