Bitcoin’s “four-year rule” may be broken for the first time. Despite record inflows into spot ETFs and bulge in corporate bonds, the market is no longer moving in lockstep with the halving.
Instead, liquidity shocks, government asset allocation, and the growth of derivatives are emerging as new supports for price discovery. This change raises important questions for 2026. The question is: can institutions still rely on the Cycle Handbook, or do they need to completely rewrite the rules?
Has the cycle finally broken?
With these forces now setting the pace, the question is not whether the old cycle still matters, but whether it has already been replaced. To test this hypothesis, BeInCrypto spoke to James Check, co-founder and on-chain analyst at Checkonchain Analytics and former lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode.
For years, Bitcoin investors have treated the four-year halving cycle as gospel. That rhythm is now facing its toughest test yet. In September 2025, CoinShares recorded $1.9 billion in ETF inflows, with nearly half of that going into Bitcoin, but Glassnode warned that $108,000 to $114,000 is a win/loss zone. At the same time, despite Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs, CryptoQuant recorded inflows to its exchanges dropping to historic lows.
Sponsored Sponsored
ETF inflows: new demand or restructuring?
September’s ETF inflows highlighted strong demand, but investors need to know whether this is truly new capital or existing holders rotated in from vehicles like GBTC. This difference affects how structurally supported the rally is.
“There will definitely be holders who will move from on-chain holdings to ETFs. This is definitely happening. But it’s not the majority…The demand is actually incredibly huge. We’re talking tens of billions of dollars of really serious capital coming in. The difference is we have a lot of sell-side.”
James noted that ETFs have already absorbed about $60 billion in total inflows. That figure is overshadowed by $30 billion to $100 billion of monthly realized profit taking by long-term holders, according to market data, highlighting why prices are not rising as quickly as demand for the ETF alone would suggest.
Exchange flow: signal or noise?
CryptoQuant shows that exchange inflows reached an all-time low at Bitcoin’s 2025 high. Taken at face value, this could mean structural deprivation. However, James cautioned against relying too much on these metrics.
“You won’t see me actually using exchange data much because I don’t think it’s a very useful tool. I think there’s something like 3.4 million Bitcoins on exchanges. A lot of these data providers just don’t have all the wallet addresses, because finding all the wallet addresses is a very hard job.”
The analysis supports this limitation, pointing out that the supply of long-term holders, which currently stands at 15.68 million BTC, or about 78.5% of the circulating supply, all of which are profitable, is a more reliable measure of scarcity than trading balances.
Do miners still move the market?
For many years, mining was shorthand for downside risk. But now that ETFs and Treasury flows dominate, the impact may be much more negligible than many assume.
Sponsored Sponsored
“For the Bitcoin network, on the sell side that I mentioned earlier… it looks like a zero line, so you can just keep zooming in and you can see it. It’s very small compared to the old hand selling, so the ETF flows are not significant. So I would say the halving is not an issue. And it wasn’t an issue. I don’t think it was an issue for a few cycles. This is one of those stories that I think is dead.”
The approximately 450 BTC issued daily by miners is tiny compared to the resurgence of supply from long-term holders, which could reach 10,000-40,000 BTC at peak times. This imbalance shows why miner flows no longer define market structure.
From cycles to liquidity regimes
When asked if Bitcoin still respects four-year cycles or is moving towards a liquidity-driven regime, James cited a structural point in its implementation.
“There were two big turning points in the Bitcoin world. The first was the all-time high in 2017… late 2022 or early 2023, that’s when Bitcoin became a more mature asset. Now, instead of the world reacting to Bitcoin, Bitcoin reacts to the world.”
Analysis supports this view, pointing out that compressed volatility and the rise of ETFs and derivatives are shifting Bitcoin to a more index-like role in global markets. He also emphasized that the current pace is determined by the liquidity situation, rather than a halving of the cycle.
Realized price and new bear market floor
Traditionally, realized prices have served as a reliable cycle diagnostic. Fidelity’s model suggests that post-half-life adjustment occurs 12 to 18 months after the event. However, James argued that this metric is now outdated and investors should instead focus on where the marginal cost basis is concentrated.
Sponsored Sponsored
“Usually a bear market ends when the price drops to the realized price. I think the realized price is currently around 52,000. But I actually think that indicator is outdated because it includes Satoshi and Lost Coin. I don’t think Bitcoin will go back to 30,000. If there is a bear market right now, I think it will go down to around 80,000. To me, that’s where the bottom of the bear market starts to form.” 75-80,000, that’s about it. ”
Their data shows that the cost base covering ETFs, corporate bonds, and the actual market average is concentrated around $74,000 to $80,000, indicating that this range currently anchors the lower bound of a potential bear market.
MVRV and metrics limits
In contrast, the MVRV Z-score has not been broken, but its threshold has fluctuated depending on market depth and instrument mix. James advised flexibility.
“I think all indicators are still reliable, but you can’t trust historical standards. People need to think of indicators as sources of information, not as indicators that tell you the answer. It’s easy to spot a high ceiling when all the indicators are through the roof. What’s really hard to spot is when a bull market loses momentum and reverses.”
Their data shows that MVRV cools around +1σ and then plateaus, rather than reaching historical extremes, reinforcing James’s view that context is above a fixed cutoff.
Sovereign flows and storage risks
Concentration risk has become a key concern as sovereign wealth funds and pensions consider their exposure. James acknowledged that Coinbase holds the majority of Bitcoin, but argued that proof of work offsets systemic risk.
Sponsored Sponsored
“If there’s one area where there’s probably the biggest concentration risk, it’s Coinbase because they control almost all of the Bitcoin from ETFs. But Bitcoin uses proof of work, so it doesn’t really matter where the coins are… There’s no threshold of risk that will break the system. The market will just sort itself out.”
The data confirms that Coinbase serves as the custodian for most US spot ETFs, demonstrating the degree of concentration and why James positions it as a market rather than a security risk.
Options, ETFs, and the US advantage
James pointed out that derivatives are:Decisive factors for Vanguard’s potential entry into the ETF and tokenization markets.
“The most important thing is that it actually has nothing to do with the ETF itself; it’s actually an options market built on top of the ETF…As of October 2024, IBIT started tearing apart ahead of everyone else. It’s currently the only company seeing significant inflows. The US has about a 90% advantage in terms of ETF holdings.”
Market analysis shows that after the launch of options in late 2024, BlackRock’s IBIT has captured the majority of the share of assets under management, with US ETFs accounting for almost 90% of global flows, highlighting that derivatives are the real driver of market dynamics. IBIT’s dominance is consistent with reports that US ETFs form nearly all new inflows, reinforcing the country’s outsized role.
lastly
“Everyone is always looking for the perfect metric to predict the future. There is no such thing. The only thing you can control is your decisions. If you go down to 75, make sure you have a plan for it. If you go up to 150, make sure you have a plan for that too.”
James argued that preparing strategies for downside and upside scenarios is the most practical way to weather volatility in 2026 and beyond.
His analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle may no longer define its trajectory. While ETF inflows and sovereign-scale capital are introducing new structural factors, long-term holder behavior remains a key constraint.
Indicators such as realized price and MVRV need to be reinterpreted, and $75,000 to $80,000 may be emerging as a floor in the modern bear market. For financial institutions, the focus in 2026 should shift to liquidity regimes, custody dynamics, and the derivatives market currently forming on top of ETFs.
