Bitcoin (BTC) is up nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, trading near $111,346, extending the broader market recovery. Despite the recovery, Bitcoin price remains down 3.8% over the past 30 days, indicating that a bullish recovery is still underway.
However, both on-chain indicators and technical signals suggest that Bitcoin may be poised for a stronger push if key resistance levels are cleared.
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More holders are buying again as market confidence gradually returns
Holder Accumulation Rate (HAR) measures the number of active holders increasing their positions rather than decreasing them, indicating an increase in confidence.
This ratio has been on a downward trend since September 13, hitting a low of 52.91% in early October, but has since recovered to 55.53%, indicating new accumulation behavior.
If this ratio remains above 50%, it typically means that long-term Bitcoin holders are buying more than selling, which is a bullish sign.
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Net Unrealized Gains and Losses (NUPL), which tracks whether the market is in profit or loss, supports this view. After hitting a three-month low of 0.48 on October 17th, the price began to rise.
With NUPL still below 0.50 and near three-month lows, profit-taking does not appear to be an imminent hurdle.
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Historically, a similar decline on October 11th has been followed by a quick rise from $110,810 to $115,321 (up 4%) within two days. This setup suggests that Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase again before a breakout.
Taken together, these two on-chain signals suggest that investor confidence and profitability are recovering, although sentiment remains cautious.
Bitcoin price chart pattern suggests breakout if above $114,000 collapses
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading within a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern that often precedes bullish markets. This structure shows that both trend lines are converging to the downside, but volume is steadily decreasing, confirming the effectiveness of the wedge.
This setup typically ends with a breakout above the upper trendline, supported by increased volume and renewed buying pressure. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $111,346 and has turned to support at the major resistance level at $108,918.
The next major level to look at is $112,242, which coincides with the top of the wedge. A breakout will be confirmed if the day closes above $114,928 (the zone that limited previous recovery attempts).
This would likely pave the way for $117,615 and $121,440, respectively, 5.6% and 9% above current levels.
However, if BTC fails to hold $108,918, the near-term bullish bias would weaken and the potential downside target would be at the lower end of the wedge at $103,545.
