US President Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Qiao Changpeng is the second major pardon of a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency world since he took office. And in less than a year.
This latest move has fueled speculation that Sam Bankman Freed could be next.
Applause, alarm and soaring speculation
Today’s news that President Trump pardoned Zhao Changpeng (CZ) provoked reactions ranging from applause to alarm. While some members of the crypto community welcomed the news, critics raised red flags about a potential conflict of interest.
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What is clear is that President Trump’s latest pardon has sparked speculation about who will benefit next.
Voters on the popular prediction market Polymarket are already betting that FTX exchange founder Sam Bankman Fried (SBF), who was sentenced to 25 years in prison on multiple fraud charges, could be the next candidate.
In the past five hours, several polls on prediction markets have shown that the probability of SBF being released from custody by the end of this year has increased from 4% to 16%.
Although it may seem unlikely, a look at the profiles of the crypto-related individuals President Trump has pardoned in the past may make pardoning SBF seem more likely.
A story of two pardons
President Trump’s CZ pardon may not seem all that surprising when juxtaposed with his earlier decision to pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht just two days after taking office, especially considering the far more serious charges Ulbricht faced.
Through Silk Road, Ulbricht facilitated the anonymous trading of illegal goods using Bitcoin.
In 2015, he was convicted of multiple charges including drug distribution, money laundering, computer hacking and operating a continuing criminal enterprise. He was ultimately sentenced to two life terms without the possibility of parole and 40 years in prison.
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At Ulbricht’s sentencing, the judge explicitly justified a life sentence on the scale of the Silk Road drug trade and the indirect deaths it caused.
In contrast, CZ pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Bank Secrecy Act and other regulatory violations. In April 2024, a court sentenced him to four months in federal prison.
Although serious, the harm caused by CZ’s crimes involved regulatory failures rather than direct theft of customer funds.
Considering the outcome of both trials, SBF’s crime scale falls somewhere in the middle.
SBF Crime and the Politics of Mercy
A jury sentenced Sam Bankman Freed in March 2024 on multiple charges including wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy. The scope of his misdeeds was transcendent.
FTX misused hundreds of millions, if not billions, of customer funds, resulting in widespread losses for investors and lenders and the collapse of one of the crypto industry’s largest exchanges.
To some extent, SBF’s sentences were considered lenient. Prosecutors had initially sought a sentence of 40 to 50 years in prison for the guilty verdict.
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Nevertheless, although the economic damage caused by SBF is incalculable, many courts consider his crimes to be less severe than Ulbricht’s.
Although the collapse of FTX had a significant economic impact, Silk Road’s activities, which extended to violent crime, organized human trafficking, and drug distribution, posed a far greater threat to public safety.
With Ulbricht’s pardon setting a precedent, it seems more likely that SBF will receive a pardon from Trump. Combined with the president’s efforts to position himself as an ally of cryptocurrencies, the move fits into a broader political strategy.
Meanwhile, SBF’s parents are actively lobbying for his release on Capitol Hill, making his chances even stronger.
However, major obstacles still stand in the way of amnesty.
argument for forgiveness
SBF’s crimes were one of the most significant financial scandals in modern history.
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The scale of his conduct spans global jurisdictions and involves countless victims, making his case far more severe than the violations seen by other pardoned crypto executives like CZ.
From a public perception perspective, it would be difficult to extend leniency to someone convicted of such a crime.
Unlike others who took plea deals, SBF was tried and found guilty on all charges. His refusal to accept responsibility and his conduct in court, which was widely perceived as lacking in remorse, left a lasting impression on the judiciary and the public.
In contrast, while CZ and other pardoned executives have pleaded guilty, cooperated with authorities, and portrayed themselves as reformers, the SBF has struggled to cultivate its image.
Adding to the complexity, the SBF’s political history could work against him. Before his ouster, he and his network were major donors to political groups aligned with the Democratic Party.
Given President Trump’s pragmatic approach to loyalty and optics, he may be less inclined to show leniency towards the SBF. As BeInCrypto previously reported, public perception often influences President Trump’s decisions regarding pardons.
Given this background, he may be less likely to risk political funds to someone seen as a member of the opposition.
The president’s past attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry has shown an openness to the idea. However, when it comes to SBF, the costs can easily outweigh the potential benefits.
