Since mid-October, many altcoins have experienced sharp declines due to widespread deleveraging in the derivatives market. However, analysts currently believe there are several indicators that suggest altcoins may have formed a stabilization zone and are bracing for a short-term rebound in November.
What are these signs? The analysis below will examine them in detail.
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Can altcoins regain what they lost in October?
The market fear and greed index at the end of October was 29, reflecting deep-rooted fear. This sentiment has continued for three consecutive weeks since the October 11th liquidation event.
Fear is holding investors back. On the positive side, most altcoins are currently forming stable price ranges without making new lows.
There is evidence to support this view. The OTHERS/BTC chart (which represents the value of all but the top 10 altcoins relative to Bitcoin) plummeted from over 0.14 in September to below 0.12 in October, according to Swissblock’s Altcoin Vector account known for its institutional-level reporting.
However, this chart has now entered the “stabilization” phase, which shows that the price is starting to fluctuate within a stable range.
WIF/USD is a prime example, with reactions closely aligned with the broader trend.
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“If the stabilization zone holds as support, we could see a short-term alternative rally. It’s not an alternative season, but a bailout to release downside pressure,” Altcoin Vector noted.
With this cautious tone, altcoin Vector is only expecting a short-term bailout rebound in November. However, other analysts are more optimistic, hinting at the possibility of a true altcoin season featuring a strong breakout.
Why some analysts are predicting altcoin season in November
Using the same OTHERS/BTC chart, MN Fund founder and macroeconomic analyst Michael van de Poppe offered a more bullish view. He called it one of the most valuable charts on the market today.
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According to Van de Poppe, altcoins are currently undervalued by levels comparable to historical market lows such as Q4 2016 and Q1 2020.
Large gatherings continued during both of these historical periods. In 2017, the market experienced an explosive altcoin season, with Ethereum and other altcoins soaring hundreds of times in value. From 2020 to 2021, a full-fledged bull market developed after the pandemic.
Meanwhile, analyst Javon Marks highlighted the RSI indicator on the “Other Advantage” chart, which measures the market share of altcoins outside the top 10 relative to the overall crypto market.
Marks noted that OTHERS.D has entered the deepest oversold zone ever recorded on the monthly RSI for the first time in history.
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“If a market is oversold, it could mean that prices have fallen ‘too much’, seller pressure is gone, and a rise or reversal may be on the way,” Marks explained.
Renowned analyst Ted offered a similar outlook, predicting a “beautiful bull market.”
As a result, several leading analysts predict that altcoins could recover in the next month. Historically, altcoin season often starts around November.
However, current market sentiment remains cautious. The Altcoin Seasonal Index remains below 50, and investors remain anxious despite the US Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates. This reflects a significantly different environment compared to past cycles.
