XRP entered November with little activity. XRP price has been flat for the past 24 hours, with a modest increase of 0.6% at the time of writing. It may seem like nothing is wrong, but the charts and on-chain data tell a different story.
The bullish pattern has narrowed, selling pressure is decreasing, and XRP is currently 2% away from its “glory zone.” This is the level that could determine whether this modest start turns into something much bigger.
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Cost-based heatmaps and data exchange set the stage
The cost-based distribution heatmap (a chart showing where investors last bought XRP) highlights a dense cluster of holder activity between $2.52 and $2.54. This is the zone where 1.56 billion XRP was last accumulated. These high cost zones often act as a barrier as many holders sell when prices return to purchase levels.
However, this time, market trends are changing.
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According to Glassnode, the exchange’s net position change (which tracks whether tokens move in and out of exchanges) for XRP decreased from -866 million XRP on October 30 to -965 million XRP on November 1, with outflows increasing by 11.4%.
This means that sellers send fewer coins to exchanges and more coins are pulled into their wallets and held. Increasing outflows near such important resistance levels often signal accumulation and suggest that traders are anticipating future strength rather than preparing for an exit.
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If XRP manages to clear the $2.54 zone, the next significant supply wall will be at an even higher level. This was between $2.80 and $2.82, with an additional 1.87 billion XRP purchased at the end.
However, to rise that far, it will need to hit the $2.54 level, or the “glory zone.” If this happens, there is a possibility that the upward momentum will be confirmed. The XRP price chart discussed below also highlights this.
XRP price pattern matches 2% threshold
Technical charts further deepen this story. On the 12-hour chart, XRP is forming a descending wedge. This is a pattern that usually indicates a potential change from a decline to a recovery. The price is currently testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.50, which is almost close to the aforementioned cost base zone.
A daily close above $2.57, about 2% above current levels, would confirm that buyers have cleared short-term supply (between $2.52 and $2.54). The next important hurdle lies at $2.69, where the wedge’s upper trendline is located.
If XRP price can sustain above $2.69, it could open the door to a higher cluster zone of $2.81 marked on the heatmap. If the momentum continues beyond that, the rally could widen towards $3.10.
However, XRP pricing has clear invalidation levels. A break below the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $2.38 will weaken the bullish structure. A break below $2.19 will further invalidate the bullishness and indicate that the sellers have regained control.
