Solana (SOL) enters November and is still struggling to find clear direction. Despite a brief rebound attempt during Halloween, the token has fallen 4% in the past seven days and is down nearly 19% this month. Solana’s price is currently trading around $186 and is trapped in a range of $178 to $209.
Although outflows from holders have slowed, a group of traders may be keeping SOL prices in check.
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There’s still a lot of money missing from this move.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether large investors are adding to or exiting positions, has failed to rise above zero.
From October 27th to October 31st, the CMF briefly tried to turn positive, but then turned downward again, indicating that large traders continue to drain Solana of funds rather than inflows.
Until CMF definitively rises above zero, there will be no capital inflows from major companies, and Solana’s upside will remain subdued.
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The newly launched Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) received $132 million in inflows this week, but these inflows have not yet translated into actual spot market demand as most of its exposure is created in-kind (from existing SOL reserves) and may be managed through staking.
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This could explain why Solana’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains below zero.
Despite the ETF launch and widespread media buzz, Solana’s price is still down about 4% this week, proving that passive inflows alone are not helping the token recover.
Interestingly, the change in Solana’s holder net position, which measures whether long-term wallets are being accumulated or sold, shows a different trend.
On October 3, net outflows reached nearly -11.43 million SOL, one of the steepest levels this month. By October 31st, this figure had improved to -1.91 million SOL, an 83% reduction in net outflows.
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This means that while holders are still selling, they are doing so at a much slower pace, a small but positive change for Solana’s long-term structure.
Solana price chart configuration remains bearish
Despite holder selling slowing down, Solana’s price chart setup remains fragile. The daily chart shows that SOL is trading within an expanding rising wedge pattern, which usually indicates depletion and a potential bust.
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The lower trendline, which has been tested more than five times since August, has been under strong pressure since mid-October.
From October 13 to October 26, Solana’s price made lower highs, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying momentum, made higher highs.
This forms a hidden bearish divergence, a pattern that typically signals a likely continuation of a larger downward trend in Solana price.
To regain strength, Solana must first regain $198 and then close above $209. That would open the way to $237. However, if $178 fails (down only 4.53%), it will likely fall to $155, which is about a 14% decline. If this happens, the bearish hypothesis will be further supported.
For the weakness to be overridden, CMF needs to rise above zero and investors need to go back to net buying. This flow of spot money could push the SOL price above at least $198 in the near term.
