Bitcoin prices ended October down about 4%, but venture funding for the month reached $5.1 billion, making it the second-strongest month since 2022.
According to CryptoRank data, October defied its own seasonal myth, with three mega trades accounting for the bulk of it.
Bitcoin has fallen 3.7% over the past month, which earned traders the nickname “Uptober” for its historic winning streak, breaking a pattern that has lasted since 2019.
However, venture capitalists invested $5.1 billion in crypto startups during the same 31-day period, marking the second-strongest monthly total since 2022 and the best VC performance of 2025 outside of March.
The disconnect between spot market weakness and venture market strength creates a puzzle: Either builders see something that traders miss, or a few big checks are skewing the signal.
Concentration speaks volumes. Three deals accounted for approximately $2.8 billion of October’s $5.1 billion total: Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket and Tempo’s $500 million Series A. Rounds led by Stripe and Paradigm and Kalshi’s $300 million Series D round.
CryptoRank’s monthly data shows that there were 180 funding rounds published in October, with the top three deals accounting for 54% of the total capital deployed in less than 2% deals.
The median round size is probably in the single digits of millions. If you take polymarket, tempo, and calci out of the equation, the story would change from “best month in years” to “a steady but unglamorous continuation of a modest pace in 2024.”
The story of the “venture rebound” largely depends on whether people view the strategic acquisition spree and two infrastructure bets by the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company as a sign of broad builder confidence or as outliers that happened to end in the same reporting window.
Why Spot Traders Sold While VCs Draw Checks
Bitcoin’s fall in October was driven by profit-taking following September’s rally, macroeconomic headwinds from rising U.S. Treasury yields, and continued ETF outflows that began mid-month and accelerated into the final week.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $3.4 billion in net inflows, but Pharcyde Investors’ daily flow data shows that there were significant redemptions from major spot Bitcoin products, particularly in the last 10 trading days.
Venture capital operates on a different clock. The companies that invested in October had been committed to paper-driven positions for months.
The timing of actual cash transfers and announcements reflects legal processes and strategic alignment rather than spot market sentiment.
Polymarket’s $2 billion from ICE does not reflect bets on Bitcoin’s November price, but reflects ICE’s view that prediction markets represent a multi-billion dollar addressable market in which first-mover advantage and regulatory positioning are more important than token price movements.
Tempo’s $500 million round will fund stablecoins and payments infrastructure aimed at enterprise adoption. The success metrics of a revenue-generating product are not directly correlated to whether Bitcoin trades at $100,000, $60,000, or $40,000.
Mr. Kalsi’s $300 million raise is in similar territory. The CFTC-regulated prediction market platform competes with polymarkets and traditional derivatives exchanges, and its valuation has soared to $5 billion based on volume growth and regulatory moats rather than crypto market timing.
October’s three biggest deals have something in common. That means cryptocurrencies are targeted at infrastructure, compliance, and institutional use cases where they serve as plumbing rather than speculation.
Venture capitalists are betting on building a decade of financial infrastructure rather than next quarter’s price movements, and this focus helps explain why venture activity soars while retail traders retreat.
Risk of huge trading concentration
Concentration breeds vulnerability. Two of October’s flagship deals could represent peak valuations rather than verified milestones if Polymarket faces regulatory headwinds or development of Tempo’s enterprise pipeline is slower than expected.
If these few big bets stumble due to the same concentration that inflated October’s headline numbers, the sector stands a good chance of a downward correction.
You also need to be careful about timing. ICE announced its investment in Polymarket days before the U.S. mayoral election, positioning the platform to take advantage of record prediction market volumes.
This timing reflects strategic opportunism as ICE capitalizes on increased awareness and user growth, but calls into question sustained engagement if election-driven volumes return to normal.
Mr. Kalsi’s $300 million was acquired amid similar election-related momentum. Both trades could prove to be prescient if prediction markets remain active post-election, and if trading volumes spike after the dual political event is resolved, they could represent exaggerated prices at their peak.
If October’s pattern of weak retail, rotating institutions and concentrated infrastructure spending holds true, the winners will inevitably be public sector platforms rather than projects that capture the speculative frenzy.
