HBAR prices are moving within a narrow range, indicating that buyers and sellers are still vying for control. It’s down about 21% over the past month and 11% for the week. However, compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, HBAR’s losses have slowed.
The chart is currently capturing a tug of war between secular weakness and early buy signals. Momentum is improving, but long-term signs remain alarming. What the whales do next could determine whether the equilibrium is maintained or broken.
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Buyers rally while sellers resist
On a daily chart, HBAR shows two signals moving in opposite directions. A bearish crossover is forming between the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). EMA smoothes price data and indicates the direction of the long-term trend.
When the short EMA falls below the long EMA, momentum weakens, indicating that long-term sellers are still putting pressure on the price. And it sets up a movement like a fix.
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However, not all indicators match. From October 23rd to November 4th, prices hit new lows, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, made even lower lows.
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This setup is called a bullish divergence. This usually means selling pressure has subsided and buyers are starting to return with some hope.
This division defines the current phase of the HBAR. Although momentum suggests a recovery, the overall trend remains under pressure. This push and pull could cause HBAR price to lock into the range it has been in since October 11th.
This range indicates balance, with short-term buyers testing the strength, while long-term sellers are still defending the resistance.
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Whales add positions as money flow strengthens, aiming to raise HBAR price
Although the technical situation appears to be divided, on-chain data indicates that large investors may already be on the buyer’s side.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures funds flowing into and out of assets, has been rising since November 3, even as HBAR prices have fallen. When CMF rises while prices fall, it indicates large capital inflows, often driven by whales or long-term holders.
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This divergence in price and money flow indicates that whales are quietly buying the dip while the market is debating direction. From November 3rd to November 5th, as prices fell towards $0.16, CMF rose, indicating increased inflows in response to short-term selling.
If CMF continues to rise above 0, it could confirm steady accumulation and help HBAR move towards the upper end of the range near $0.20. But if the whales eventually slow down, the lower layers of their habitat could be exposed.
The range that has continued since October 11th is $0.16 to $0.20.
A breakout and daily close above $0.20 would be the first sign of real bullish momentum. However, if the price falls below $0.16, another important support level at $0.14 could be exposed.
