XRP is trading sideways after a volatile development mirroring Q3 movements. Despite increased market activity, altcoins remain within a narrow range.
Historical patterns hint at a potential change, as XRP once again shows signs that were common before a strong fourth quarter performance.
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XRP mirrors the past in many ways
The fourth quarter has historically been one of the strongest periods for XRP. Over the past 12 years, the token’s average fourth quarter return has been 134%. While such a rally is unlikely to be repeated in the coming weeks, the trend highlights the asset’s long-term seasonal strength and illustrates the conditions that often precede a bullish reversal.
This historic resilience positions XRP as one of the few major cryptocurrencies to consistently benefit from year-end momentum.
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Unrealized losses are increasing again, creating a situation that previously caused a strong rebound. When losses spike, investors often push prices higher out of a desire to recover value. Similar movements were observed in November 2024, April 2025, and June 2025, each with a clear upward trend.
If this pattern repeats, XRP could be headed for a recovery due to renewed buying pressure. The recent increase in unrealized losses suggests growing market tension, which historically precedes a breakout as investors seek to return to profitability.
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MVRV long/short differential is declining towards the neutral zone. This indicates diminishing returns for long-term holders and is often a precursor to a change in the behavior of short-term holders. A decline below neutral would indicate a rise in short-term profits and could lead to a temporary sell-off as traders lock in profits.
After this stage, the indicator usually returns to positive territory. When long-term holders’ profits rise again, XRP often follows the price increase. This move suggests the potential for stronger gains if the market matches previous cycles.
XRP price waits for trigger
XRP is trading at $2.29 after falling 22% in October and remaining flat for several weeks. While this price reflects market caution, it also shows resilience as buyers continue to defend key levels through short-term uncertainty.
Current indicators suggest a bullish outlook supporting a rise above the key psychological zone of $2.50. Clearing this level could push XRP above $2.64 and reach $3.02, helping the token recoup its October losses.
However, XRP continues to move sideways for 34 days, similar to late July after another 22% crash. If history repeats itself, XRP could continue to hover between $2.20 and $2.50, potentially delaying a major breakout until stronger momentum emerges.
