ASTER price is up over 8% today and is up about 12% over the past week. The token has finally broken out of a descending wedge, which is usually a bullish pattern.
But despite today’s sharp rise, some warning signs are beginning to emerge. The divergence of the two momentums on the liquidation map and the prolonged heavy build-up indicate that the next move may not be a linear continuation. The question now is whether ASTER can extend the breakout or whether there will be a rebound first.
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Momentum shows strength, but divergence is also emerging.
The first concern arises from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI measures buying pressure and indicates whether there is underlying strength to the move. From November 2nd to November 16th, ASTER price made lower highs and RSI made higher highs. It’s a hidden bearish divergence. As buying pressure increases, prices seem unable to keep up. Usually warns of retreat.
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Money flow indexes (MFIs), which track market buying using a combination of price and volume, highlight the same issue. From November 11th to November 16th, prices formed higher lows, while MFI formed lower lows. This means that market buying is weakening.
Both differences refer to the same message. Buyers pushed ASTER high enough to break the wedge, but not hard enough to confirm the upside. A daily candlestick close above $1.28 is the only level where both divergences can be resolved and true strength can be confirmed.
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Long and heavy positioning increases the risk of pullback
Greater risk comes from leverage. In Binance’s ASTER-USDT liquidation map, the long-term liquidation leverage is $25.86 million. Short-term liquidation leverage is only $6.06 million.
In other words, the longs are more than 4 times larger than the shorts. This setup means building your movement around aggressive long positioning. These longs are at risk if ASTER price declines by any amount. When a prolonged liquidation begins, prices typically fall faster as forced selling accelerates the move.
This is directly paired with divergence. If the momentum weakens and the price pulls back, the Aster price could face an even deeper decline as the long side is too burdened. That is the core risk hiding beneath today’s breakout.
$1.28 needed to confirm ASTER price strength
ASTER’s price chart shows the same tension. Today, ASTER broke the falling wedge. However, a breakout is only guaranteed above $1.28. This is an important level where the structure moves from a volatile breakout to a clear trend change.
If the divergence develops and a rebound begins, the first level that ASTER will need to protect is $1.09. If this level is maintained, the decline will be a simple correction.
Losing $1.09 opens the way to $0.99. This is also where most of the long-term liquidation clusters are located on the Binance map. Due to the high leverage on the long side, a move into that zone could accelerate the decline.
If ASTER closes above $1.28, the divergence will be invalidated and the path will open towards $1.59. That’s the next major level the chart shows.
