Cardano became one of the weakest large-cap coins this month. Cardano’s price has fallen by about 30% in the past 30 days, and by about 26% since November 11th. This decline pushed ADA toward the lower end of the descending wedge support. This structure is typically bullish, but a break could turn bearish in the long term.
Despite this pressure, three key indicators turned positive as Cardano sits on the last major support.
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Early signs of buyer strength near last support
At the same time that Cardano price reached the key $0.45 support, two indicators that track purchase strength and volume behavior changed simultaneously.
CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) tracks the inflow or outflow of money based on price and volume. It has been declining since November 10th, and there were times when it fell below zero during Cardano’s sharp correction. However, from November 16th to November 19th, CMF formed higher highs and price formed lower highs. This is a bullish divergence as CMF rising while price falls indicates stronger inflows than the chart reflects.
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On-balance volume is an easy way to see if buyers or sellers are becoming more active. OBV has been stuck below the downtrend line for several weeks, coinciding with the steady decline in Cardano price. However, once ADA touched the $0.45 zone, OBV rose above this trend line for the first time in a while. This usually indicates that buyers are starting to re-enter before the ADA price reacts.
When CMF and OBV improve together near major supports, it often means the market may be preparing for a short-term recovery attempt. However, Cardano’s price still needs to be verified from on-chain behavior.
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Holder’s actions during the drop indicate strong beliefs
Spent Coins Age Band tracks the number of tokens transferred from different wallet age groups. When many coins move at once, it often indicates fear or heavy selling. When the movement of a token decreases while the price falls, it usually indicates the conviction of long-term holders.
On November 1st, ADA reached its peak in spent coin activity, with 159.01 million tokens transferred. By November 19th, the index had fallen by about 27%, even as prices continued to fall.
This means that far fewer tokens are moved during modification. Such a sharp decline in the token’s movement during the decline strengthens the idea that Cardano may be looking to hold rather than fall below trendline support. This is the third reason why we recommend rebound angle.
Cardano price needs to maintain $0.45 or risk breakdown
Cardano price is trading directly in line with the lower trendline of the descending wedge and the strongest support between $0.45 and $0.44. If this zone holds at the daily close, ADA can attempt a rebound. A break above $0.50-$0.52 will be the first sign of strength, but the real recovery will begin after Cardano regains $0.60.
This level reverses the short-term trend and sets up a retest of $0.69, the point where a full breakout of the wedge is possible. Breaking above that level means Cardano price could turn an expected rebound into a rally attempt.
If the support fails, the structure will fail. A daily close below $0.44 could initiate a decline towards $0.40, with further declines possible if market sentiment weakens further. Bullish setups are invalidated below this zone.
