HBAR price has recovered about 26% from its lows of around $0.12 on November 21st. Prices have risen about 4% in the past 24 hours, which appears to be a significant short-term recovery.
However, this bounce doesn’t seem convincing. The only bullish setup on the chart is rapidly weakening, with indicators showing waning strength rather than expanding support.
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Cup-and-handle setup weakens as bull power decreases
The only short-term bullish case for HBAR is on the 4-hour chart. From November 20th to November 23rd, prices produced a cup-and-handle pattern. A cup-and-handle is a common bullish setup in which the price drops, then rises (cup) before forming a small pullback (handle). A breakout will only occur if the price first closes above the top of the handle.
For HBAR, its breakout level is around $0.147.
A clean close above $0.158 will break the cup itself and activate the pattern’s predicted target around $0.194. The invalidation for this pattern is less than $0.143.
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But the problem is simple.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, which compares market strength to average prices, has weakened since November 23. BBP is still positive but tilted. This means that the buyers are losing control just when the pattern needs momentum to break.
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This is normal during consolidation, but HBARs lose strength too quickly. If the price falls below $0.143, the handle will break to the downside. When that happens, the cup and handle setup collapses and the only bullish trigger disappears.
Large flows of money are not enough
The weakness is also visible on the daily chart. HBAR is still trading within a descending channel. A descending channel is formed when both highs and lows fall in straight parallel paths. Price touched the lower band of this channel on November 21st and rallied nearly 27%, but the move quickly disappeared.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) explains why. CMF measures whether large sums of money are flowing into or out of the token. It has been below the trend line since early November and has not crossed zero. Big money isn’t fueling this recovery. A similar CMF failure occurred from November 8th to 10th, leading to a decline in HBAR prices.
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Until the CMF breaks through the trend line and goes above zero, any pullback is just a reaction and not a change in trend. And that’s why even 4-hour handle breakouts tend to fail.
HBAR Price Level: Rebound Remains Weak Unless Significant Breakout Occurs
Daily HBAR price action confirms similar weakness.
To continue higher, HBAR needs to break.
$0.169 — 0.618 Resistance from the retracement and upper trend line of the descending channel. $0.182 — Stronger daily resistance
However, these levels will become problematic if the key cup-and-handle levels of $0.147 and $0.158 break out first.
These breakouts are unlikely unless CMF turns positive and the bulls regain strength on the 4-hour chart.
The downside is still more obvious than the upside. A daily close below $0.140 exposes the November 21st low of $0.122, which becomes the most important support on the chart. A decline below $0.140 would also invalidate the previous cup-and-handle formation.
Another detail is important. The lower trendline of the descending channel has only two clean touch points, making it structurally weak. This means that even if selling pressure increases again, it won’t take much effort to break below it.
To defeat the bearish setup, HBAR must first collect $0.169 and then $0.182. A break above these levels will reverse the structure and pave the way to $0.198, but this will require strong bullish forces and a full CMF recovery.
