ENA price has increased over 10% in the past 24 hours and is trading around $0.28. This move stands out as the token is still down around 54% in three months and in a steady downward trend. Some traders may see this pullback as the beginning of a trend reversal.
However, on-chain data and technical signals are still leaning in the opposite direction. This rally has not received enough support, and a 13% decline remains a realistic possibility.
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Whales reduce exposure while volume and momentum lag
Large holders do not support this move. While some posts on X emphasized buying fresh whales, a broader view shows the opposite.
In the past 24 hours, whale holdings decreased from 8.17 billion ENA to 8.07 billion ENA. This represents a savings of nearly 100 million ENA, or approximately $28 million at current prices.
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In other words, the bounce is occurring while the whale continues to adjust its position. It weakens the basis of the rally
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Volume patterns match. On-balance volume (OBV), which tracks whether actual purchases are increasing or decreasing, has formed a clear divergence. From November 18th to November 26th, ENA price made further highs, while OBV made lower highs.
This means that prices are rising faster than actual volume, and such divergences often dampen rallies. To invalidate the divergence, the OBV metric must cross the downtrend line. Until that happens, ENA’s price rally will lack strength.
Momentum also does not support a breakout.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index), which measures buying strength, shows hidden bearish divergence. From November 10th to November 26th, ENA price formed lower highs, while RSI formed higher highs. Hidden bearish divergences appear within an ongoing downtrend rather than before a reversal. This suggests that the broader trend is likely to continue lower.
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The combination of whale selling, weakening OBV, and bearish RSI structure makes this rally look more like a rescue rebound than a trend change.
ENA price level indicates a possible fall of 13%
The key short-term level is $0.29. If Etena (ENA) fails to break and close above that level, the bounce will lose momentum again. This reveals $0.24, about 13% lower than the current price.
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A clean break below $0.24 opens the way to deeper support at $0.21 if selling pressure increases.
For the rally to gain momentum and continue, ENA price needs two steps.
• First, a strong candlestick closes above $0.29, primarily leading to a breakout in OBV (if it occurs).
• Subsequent follow-through of over $0.35.
The RSI-driven bearish divergence only begins to weaken above $0.35, and a move towards $0.53 could be a reasonable upside target. Until that happens, the downward trend in ENA prices will continue.
