HBAR’s price is up about 2.2% today, while the broader crypto market is up over 3.5%. Seven-day performance has been flat, and the token is still down 37% over the past three months.
This gap raises the core question behind the title. Is HBAR simply behind the bounce (if it remains bounced) or is it showing signs that it may not participate at all?
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Early trend signals suggest late entry, but demand signals push in the opposite direction
The first hint that HBAR may be lagging rather than absent comes from the 4-hour chart. The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which tracks the direction of short-term trends, is roughly above the 50-period EMA, which is a medium-term guide.
This bullish crossover was last completed on November 10th, when HBAR rose almost 10%. The same setting flashes again, indicating the start of a token catch-up that would normally be lagging. A similar rebound once could give some strength to HBAR price. The trend could extend further if the price breaks above the 100-period EMA (sky blue line), a major historical resistance level.
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But demand signals tell a different story. The spot flow weakened rapidly.
Net flow on November 24th was close to -$5 million (net long). Still, today’s net flow is over +$102,000 (short). Even if we raise prices, buyers are not intervening. This suggests that traders are not poised for a full recovery and are selling on strength.
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Tokens that are “late to the party” usually attract new demand. HBAR hasn’t shown that yet. The volume confirms the hesitation.
On-balance volume (OBV), which tracks whether actual purchase volumes support the move, continues to show a bearish divergence. From October 10th to November 21st, HBAR price formed higher lows and OBV formed lower lows.
This means that the recent rally is not backed by stronger volume. OBV is currently approaching the downtrend line.
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A break above this line would signal that buyers are finally returning. But as long as the OBV is below that, the HBAR will lean toward the “no participation at all” side of the title.
Will HBAR’s price level determine its next move?
All HBAR price signals converge to one major zone, $0.159.
While the establishment of the 4-hour EMA could push HBAR price higher, a daily close above $0.159 is minimal evidence that sellers are exiting. Only then can HBAR aim for $0.182 and $0.198, and as long as that continues, we can see it starting to match the broader cryptocurrency bounce.
If HBAR fails to sustain $0.145, the entire narrative reverts to bearishness.
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Below this level, $0.122 becomes more likely, especially if spot selling continues and OBV fails to break out of the trend line. This applies to a “no participation at all” scenario, i.e. a scenario where the token is falling while the rest of the market is recovering.
At the moment, HBAR is still on the back foot in terms of short-term trends. However, weak spot inflows, a bearish OBV structure, and hesitant buyers may ultimately result in no participation at all.
HBAR can only catch up if:
OBV breaks out of the downtrend line, spot inflows strengthen and the price closes above $0.159.
Until these things match, HBAR will continue to be one of the few major tokens that follows rather than follows the broader cryptocurrency rally.
