XRP is attempting to recover this week, buoyed by renewed optimism after the launch of the Spot XRP ETF. Bullish momentum is under pressure, although increased attention is supporting a modest rebound.
A spate of massive whale sales throughout November has hampered XRP’s ability to regain strong upward traction, creating a critical tipping point for the asset.
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XRP whale breaks record
The whale’s behavior suddenly turned bearish. This month, large XRP holders suffered the biggest single-month decline since March 2023.
Addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP sold a total of over 2.2 billion XRP, valued at over $4.11 billion. Their cumulative holdings decreased to 4.39 billion XRP, a new 32-month low.
This aggressive distribution highlights growing concerns among high-value wallets. Many whales appear to have reduced their exposure to avoid further losses, indicating that confidence remains fragile despite ETF-led optimism. The scale of the sell-off indicates that large holders are still not convinced of a sustained recovery.
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Broader macro indicators reinforce these concerns. XRP’s Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL) recently fell below the 0.25 threshold and entered the “fear” zone before rebounding slightly. Historically, this level has produced two different outcomes.
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Once fear stabilizes and investors refrain from selling, profits often gradually recover and prices recover. However, when fear accelerates, capitulation usually occurs, causing a sharp decline.
Whether XRP stabilizes or falls further will largely depend on investor behavior in the coming days. A decisive move towards $2.50 would signal increased confidence and reduce the risk of capitulation. Conversely, continued fear-based selling could put downward pressure on the price and push XRP back into a vulnerable zone.
XRP price is far from target
XRP is trading at $2.20 and is trading sideways below the $2.28 resistance. Newly launched ETFs are helping the asset hold above key support at $2.14, but momentum remains sluggish.
If XRP fails to build on the recent rally due to a persistent whale distribution, a price consolidation between $2.28 and $2.14 is likely. A break below $2.14 could cause the price to head below $2.00 and the bearish trend could continue.
If the subsidy sells off and investors regain confidence, XRP could challenge the $2.28 barrier. A break above this level could send the price towards $2.36 and eventually $2.50. This would invalidate bearish theories and encourage fresh accumulation.
