Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time in a week, dropping 12% in a month. The entire crypto market has lost more than $700 billion in the past month as the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to “extreme fear”.
So, do all these market indicators signal a bear market? Let’s analyze the technical and historical data.
Sentiment signals are at bear market levels
A 10 on the Fear and Greed Index reflects extreme fear comparable to early 2022 and June 2022, which confirmed a bear market phase.
Yesterday: 16
Last week: 20
Last month: 28
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This trend indicates an acceleration of fear rather than a stabilization of emotions. Bear escapes usually begin with this type of persistent fear pressure.
However, sentiment alone does not confirm a bear market, only indicates capitulation or exhaustion.
Bitcoin breaks off the most important bull market support
The 365-day moving average is the linchpin of the long-term structure.
Current situation:
The 365-day moving average is near $102,000.
Bitcoin is trading below that.
This breakdown reflects December 2021, when price lost the same MA and the bear market began.
Historically:
If this level cannot be restored quickly, a change in cycle regime is often observed. This is one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear market transition.
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On-chain cost base shows early surrender rather than top circulation
The 6-12 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized price is currently around $94,600. Bitcoin price is currently slightly above this level.
This is important for the following reasons:
These holders bought during the ETF’s rally.
They represent “convinced buyers in a bull cycle.”
When a position falls into a loss, the market structure is weakened.
In 2021, the fall of Bitcoin price below the cost basis of this cohort was one of the last signals before the downward trend continues. This is the first time since 2022 that cost-based stress has returned.
This supports the idea of a mid-cycle break rather than a full-blown macro bearish trend yet.
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RSI indicates oversold conditions, typical of mid-cycle crashes
Market-wide RSI measurements:
Average Crypto RSI: 43.09
BTC RSI is one of the lowest among large-cap stocks
Only 2.5% of assets are overbought
Most are in oversold territory
This is similar to May-July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024. Each was a mid-cycle correction, not a late-cycle bear market. Bearish momentum is confirmed when the RSI remains significantly oversold for several weeks.
Currently, the RSI is showing stress, but the trend has not yet reversed.
MACD shows strong divergence across markets
The normalized average MACD is currently 0.02. This indicates a return of weak bullish momentum. Additionally, 58% of market assets have positive momentum.
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However, while altcoins are mixed, Bitcoin is deep in the negative zone.
If BTC’s MACD is negative but the market still has more than 50% positive momentum, the market is in a transition phase rather than a full bearish trend.
In a perfect bear market, more than 90% of assets have a negative MACD at the same time. That is not the case at this time.
The cryptocurrency market is not confirmed to be in a bear market. We are currently in the middle of a cycle, which increases the likelihood of a bear market if two conditions are met.
There are three conditions to confirm that the bear has escaped:
Bitcoin will remain below its 365-day moving average for 4-6 weeks. This triggered all the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Long-term holders continue to make large distributions. A cycle top occurs when LTH (Long Term Holders) selling exceeds 1 million BTC in 60 days. MACD turns completely negative for the entire market. we are not there yet.
Overall, cryptocurrencies have not entered a bear market yet, but the current situation puts the market in a high-risk zone and a bear market could form if Bitcoin fails to regain long-term support soon.
