Bitcoin began steadily climbing in October. This is up nearly 9% a week, and even after a mild cooldown from the recent all-time high, it’s still above $124,000. Bitcoin’s price movement is supported not only by momentum, but also by deep changes in chain activity that signal convictions from both long-term and short-term holders.
One number stands out: $130,000 – the next major target suggested by both the pattern and data.
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Exchange net flow is a low hit for multiple years as holders intervene
One of the clearest signs of confidence comes from Bitcoin’s Exchange Net Flow. This measures the difference in centralized exchange. A negative value means that more BTC has been withdrawn than deposited. It is usually a sign that the holder prefers to store it without selling.
As of October 4th, the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Netflow Bitcoin is at –7,210 BTC, the lowest level in nearly three years. The last time net flow fell was in November 2022, just before Bitcoin began a massive rise from $16,000 to $72,000 in the next few months.
The background makes the current reading even more appealing. It reflects a market that is quietly leaning towards accumulation rather than distribution.
To check this, look at Hodl Waves. This indicates the period when the coin is not moving. Over the past month, both short-term holders and long-term holders have added holdings. The 1-3 month cohort increased from 8.75% of supply to 9.59%, while the 2-3 year ownership increased from 7.00% to 7.13%.
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The 0.13% rise could look minor, but when seen against a clear signal of total Bitcoin supply and new convictions from long-term holders, it represents tens of thousands of BTC.
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This double participation is important – if only one side (short-term or long-term) accumulates, the assembly will look vulnerable. Instead, both show confidence, creating a stronger foundation for sustained movement.
Pattern Breakout targets $130,100 when volume returns to Bitcoin price movement
On the daily charts, Bitcoin prices have recently confirmed reverse head and shoulder breakouts, closing their $122,100 neckline tightly. This pattern projects immediate upside targets above $130,000 when momentum is retained.
The Wyckoff volume indicator also adds a context. This tool tracks whether the buyer (blue bar) or seller (orange bar) controls the trading session. During the final revision in September, the blue-to-orange transition preceded a price decline of $117,900 to $108,400.
This time there hasn’t been that shift. The blue bars still dominate, indicating that buyer demand remains intact.
If Bitcoin prices can exceed the $122,100 level, it appears likely that they will move to $130,100. A breakout beyond that could open up a fresh cycle high door later this quarter.
Still, DIP, which falls below $117,900 and under $108,400, temporarily disables this bullish setup, but on-chain metrics suggest that the bias remains upward for now.
