Bitcoin has fallen sharply in recent days, dropping to a six-month low as bearish momentum intensifies. This drop pushed BTC below an important psychological threshold, causing traders to brace for further declines.
However, despite the weakness, several indicators suggest that potential opportunities are emerging below the surface.
Bitcoin could repeat history
The relative strength index has entered the oversold zone for the first time in nine months, indicating extreme selling pressure. The last time Bitcoin was officially oversold was in February, which preceded a notable recovery. Oversold conditions often suggest a reversal will occur, but the timing remains uncertain.
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In the previous oversold event, Bitcoin fell another 10% before the rebound began. A similar pattern could send BTC toward $77,164 before buyers regain control. If the decline is contained and this large drop is avoided, Bitcoin could bounce back sooner.
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Macro momentum indicators similarly show an underestimation. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio remains at -14%, the lowest level in three years. The 30-day MVRV is sending two clear signals. That is, holders are currently facing losses and BTC is undervalued relative to historical standards. This environment tends to delay sales and increase accumulation.
The zone from -8% to -18% is historically known as the “opportunity zone” and is typically the range where downside pressure saturates. Selling out often leads to steady accumulation, which supports recovery.
BTC price drops to $85,000
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,860, above the key support level at $85,204. Based on current indicators, BTC could experience some further downside before rebounding, especially if oversold conditions strengthen.
If the bear market continues, Bitcoin could rise to $77,164, consistent with the historical RSI pattern. Another possible scenario is if BTC loses the support at $85,204 and then $82,503, it will fall to $80,000. Both results would reflect continued selling pressure until stabilization.
If Bitcoin manages to rebound from the current levels, it could break through $86,822 and retest $89,800. A successful move higher would allow BTC to reverse support at $91,521 and push towards $95,000. This would invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest a stronger recovery.
