Bitcoin’s advantage could remain under the watch of close investors in September. BTC.D has been declining for the second consecutive month, but Altcoin Rallies is inconsistent and has not met Altcoin investors’ expectations.
The data show that a decline in BTC.D does not always mean the start of the AltCoin season.
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Another perspective on Bitcoin advantage decreases
Recent data shows that Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) has fallen sharply from 65% to 58% in the past month. Such a drop usually coincides with Altcoin’s rising market capitalization and fits the definition of the Altcoin season that many investors expect.
However, the market capitalization of Altcoins (excluding BTC and Stablecoins) has dropped by $1.31 trillion from over $100 billion in the past month. This trend underscores the complex reality of the cryptocurrency market.
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The main reason for this decline is that Bitcoin prices fell along Altcoin’s market capitalization. However, Bitcoin declined faster than altcoins. Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell 11% in August, while Altcoins (excluding BTC and Stablecoins) fell 8%.
This reduced Bitcoin’s advantage and created a misleading impression that the Altcoin season is ongoing.
Additionally, well-known analyst Crypto King pointed out in X that Bitcoin’s advantage could stabilize in September and be rebounded. He predicted that if this happened, the chances of the Altcoin season starting would be lower.
“Bitcoin’s advantage is strong in support. The bounce from here could send control back to 63%+. That means that altcoins could face more pressure before their next big run,” predicted Crypto King.
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Selective altcoin season
In fact, the Altcoin season is unfolding in a very selective way. Several Altcoins have worked well over the past month, including Link, Pyth, OKB, CRO. But each of them had a specific news catalyst that drives their interests.
Still, many other analysts are optimistic about the possibility of a wide range of Altcoin seasons emerging in September. They point out several supporting factors. The US M2 money supply has hit record highs, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and Ethereum (ETH)’s strong performance against Bitcoin. Analysts argue that this outperformance could soon become a wider driver for Altcoins.
“Capital rotation supports ETH and selected ALT. This indicates that when BTC recovers, ALT’s impulses spread and strengthen, and relative strong people turn into overall cycle momentum,” commented Altcoin Vector.
The inconsistencies between these forecasts reflect the distinct characteristics of each market cycle. The reduction in BTC.D is not always comparable to the Altcoin season, and each Altcoin season works differently with each cycle.
