XRP has risen about 26% since November 21st, but the movement has been quiet as the price has remained static. The structure has become more interesting. Buying pressure on exchanges has increased significantly over the past eight days, and the recent bear market has failed to push XRP price below support.
XRP sits just below a major barrier that has restricted any attempts since mid-November. A break of this level could reverse the entire trend.
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Even if you support a falling wedge, the support remains the same.
XRP price continues to trade within a descending wedge, a bullish pattern that narrows as the price declines. Such wedges typically break to the upside when buyers show strength.
The $2.14 lower band has absorbed every selling attempt since November 25th. Even when the bearish crossover between the 100-day EMA and 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) was completed, XRP did not break out. EMA is a moving average that gives more weight to recent candlesticks, and bearish crossovers usually add pressure. The fact that prices remained steady indicates that sellers lacked momentum.
At the same time, XRP price started to push up even more massively. The on-balance volume (OBV) line broke above the downtrend line that had limited volume since November 10th. OBV measures the volume moving in and out of the token. A breakout means more volume is entering the market. This change often occurs just before a major resistance breaks.
However, breakout confirmation is required. OBV will need to push higher above the immediate resistance level of 6.64 billion.
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XRP price still needs a clean close above $2.28 to break out of the bullish move. This level has blocked all attempts to move higher since November 17th.
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Currency outflows suggest massive accumulation
On-chain flow data now supports the bullish case. The exchange’s net position change, which measures whether tokens are moving in and out of the exchange, turned significantly negative on November 19th. Negative (red) numbers mean tokens are exiting the exchange, which indicates buying pressure.
The amount of XRP outflow on November 19 was approximately -59.32 million tokens. By November 27, that number had reached -650.45 million. This is an increase of almost 1000% in 8 days. When outflows increase this quickly within a narrow range, it usually means large buyers are accumulating.
This explains why the $2.14 floor did not break even after the bearish EMA crossover.
Key levels that will determine if XRP price finally breaks
The range remains narrow. The first and most important level is $2.28. It has been a strong resistance level since November 17th. If XRP closes above this line with increasing volume, the next major target would be $2.55, which would be above the upper trendline of the wedge. A move above $2.55 could even lead to a bullish reversal of the broader structure and confirmation of a trend reversal.
If XRP price fails and falls below $2.14, the next support will be around $2.02. Losing that level will delay the breakout. However, this will require more selling pressure, meaning the OBV breakout will not gain momentum.
For now, the setup is leaning bullish. Buying pressure has increased by almost 1000%. Volume is starting to shift upward. Price continues to stand by his support. If XRP rises another 2% and clears $2.28, it could finally break the ceiling that has been there for over 10 days and start a new rally.
