Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says the quantum threat to blockchain is being exaggerated today. He argues that while the industry already knows how to build quantum-proof systems, it lacks efficiency and hardware coordination for switching.
In a recent podcast discussion, he described quantum as a “big red herring,” adding that a true emergency would only come if military-grade quantum benchmarks showed reliable progress.
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Quantum is a red herring for cryptocurrencies
Hoskinson explained that blockchain can move towards quantum-secure cryptography, but there are significant performance trade-offs.
“Protocols to do this are about 10 times slower to run and 10 times more expensive to run,” Hoskinson said.
He points out that no network should sacrifice throughput to be future-proof.
“I do 1,000 transactions a second. I’m going to do 100 transactions a second, and I have quantum proof. No one wants to be that person.”
Standards remain gatekeepers
Cardano’s founders linked the delay of quantum security to standardization. Until there was early government guidance, the sector risked adopting algorithms that would later be deprecated or no longer supported.
“We had to wait for the U.S. government to create a standard,” he said, referring to FIPS 203-206, which are based on NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography Program.
Hardware vendors are now on track to build accelerated silicon for approved post-quantum algorithms.
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Hoskinson highlighted why this is important for blockchain performance. “If you choose a non-standard protocol, it will be 100 times slower than a hardware-accelerated protocol.”
He said the collaboration with NIST will ensure both speed and security without locking networks into inefficient encryption for 10 years.
This is the turning point. Post-quantum standards exist and the U.S. government has begun to adopt them.
Large infrastructure players such as Cloudflare are already integrating PQ key exchange into their mainstream traffic. This represents a gradual increase in migration pressure across the Internet security stack.
Hoskinson’s framework reflects widespread sentiment across cryptography research. Quantum threats to blockchain signatures are real, but they don’t exist right now.
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Researchers and financial security analysts still view CRQC-level systems as a 2030s phenomenon rather than a current danger. Risk is determined by when, not if, you migrate.
A reference clock has been set in this window. “DARPA has a program called QBI, which is the Quantum Blockchain Initiative,” Hoskinson said.
He said the program is evaluating 11 companies to determine whether practical quantum computers could exist at scale by 2033.
He called the QBI the clearest public benchmark for journalists to track progress, adding:
“The military needs to know when to upgrade its cryptocurrencies and how to do it.”
Recent moves confirm his cautiousness. Although quantum research continues, from research into topological qubits like Microsoft’s Majorana-based devices to large-scale deployment of PQ in communications infrastructure, there is no evidence to suggest an imminent cryptographic collapse.
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As the post-quantum transition continues, cost, latency, and ecosystem fragmentation remain barriers to blockchain.
why is it important
Hoskinson’s comments cut into a debate that is often driven by speculation rather than engineering data. Quantum-secure blockchain designs exist, but activating them prematurely slows the network, increases transaction costs, and fragments developer tools.
As NIST standards are finalized and hardware roadmaps take shape, networks are moving toward planning rather than panic.
Most experts believe this change will occur within the next 10 years. Mr Hoskinson expressed a similar view.
“Many smart people think something is likely to happen in the 2030s.”
Until then, efficiency, competition, and support for hardware acceleration will determine when blockchains switch to quantum-resistant cryptography.
