Dogecoin has fallen about 1% over the past week and has fallen another 7.3% in the past 24 hours, making it one of the weakest large-cap coins in the recent market decline. ETF noise didn’t help either. The countdown for the Bitwise Spot Dogecoin ETF began on November 7th, but DOGE has barely moved since then.
Whales are also buying, but prices continue to fall. The chart shows that one group can stop Dogecoin from collapsing, but it is not back yet.
sponsored
Whale buying and ETF buzz rises – but prices still fall
Purchases from whale wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have been ongoing since November 7th. The amount held on that day was 30.75 billion DOGE. Currently, they hold 34.11 billion DOGE. They added about 3.36 billion DOGE in one week. At today’s prices, the cumulative value is more than $550 million.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Even with this level of buying, DOGE is still down 1% over the same period. ETF countdowns also had no effect. Prices were flat as institutional investor interest increased.
When whales buy and prices don’t react, it usually means other forces are strong. That force is long-term holders.
sponsored
This hodler group has a history of rise and fall.
Changes in Hodler’s net position indicate that long-term wallets are being actively sold. This indicator tracks whether long-term holders are adding (inflows) or removing (outflows) coins.
On November 9th, long-term holders removed 62.3 million DOGE. As of November 13th, that number has jumped to 148.3 million DOGE with long-term wallets remaining. This is a 138% increase in selling pressure within a week.
sponsored
This same group drove the previous price reaction.
• From September 6th to 7th, the indicator reversed from outflow to inflow, and immediately after that, DOGE rose by about 33%.
• From October 15th to 16th, the same change produced a small rebound of about 5% a few days later.
These movements show a clear pattern. Price strength typically returns when long-term holders stop selling and start adding again. At the moment, the signal is still flowing deep. DOGE cannot build a true recovery until it reverses again.
sponsored
Dogecoin price approaches breakdown zone — one level holds the entire structure
DOGE is currently trading around $0.163, which puts it near its largest support cluster on a cost basis. The cost-based heatmap shows the highest concentration of holders between $0.164 and $0.165. As long as this zone is maintained, DOGE will remain stable and can attempt one or two bounces.
If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.164 (which it currently can), it will slide under this cluster. Since there are few major support levels below it, the price could fall quickly. The next major level is $0.158, just 2.6% lower. Looking at this breakdown, if the market remains weak, the loss could be more than $0.151.
On the upside, DOGE price needs to break above $0.178 to show early strength. A stronger short-term reversal would require a clean break above $0.186. But neither movement can be sustained unless long-term holders return and return to inflows.
