Dogecoin’s early November rally appears weak despite a modest 1.2% gain. DOGE prices are still down 5.9% over the past week and nearly 27% this month. And now, on-chain data shows a deepening selling trend.
The key question here is: Will Dogecoin’s $0.17 floor, which has remained strong since October 11, including during the last bearish crossover, survive as long-term holders begin to exit?
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Cost-based heatmap shows the last line of defense
On-chain cost-based data highlights Dogecoin’s strongest short-term support cluster between $0.177 and $0.179, which last accumulated around 3.78 billion DOGE.
This range represents the highest supply of long-term holders and has served as an important buffer during past declines.
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The cost-based heatmap shows where most investors last purchased their tokens. Highlights price zones with a concentration of long-term holders that act as support or resistance.
That buffer is weakening rapidly. According to Glassnode, Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks long-term wallet additions or sales, sharply turned negative on October 31st. In just 24 hours, the inflow fell from +8.2 million DOGE to -22 million DOGE outflow. This is a 367% reversal in holder behavior.
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This fluctuation confirms that even older wallets are offloading their holdings. If this situation continues, the $0.177-$0.179 cluster could fade, exposing Dogecoin’s strongest foundation since early October to further downside risk.
Below $0.17, the next significant cost-based cluster does not appear until $0.14, leaving a large gap in potential losses. But more on that in the next section.
Looming death cross could accelerate DOGE price decline
DOGE’s price structure is currently reinforcing the bearish on-chain story. After the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) fell below the 200-day EMA in late October, Dogecoin extended its decline, marking the first stage of the current downtrend. EMA is a trend indicator that smoothes price data to indicate market direction.
A second, stronger death cross is now forming as the 100-day EMA approaches the level below the 200-day EMA. Unlike previous crossovers, this crossover has more significance because both averages represent longer time frames and reflect sustained weakness rather than short-term volatility.
If this crossover is confirmed, it would indicate deepening downside momentum and strengthen the already existing bearish structure. In that case, the strongest support zone around $0.17 highlighted in Dogecoin’s cost-based heatmap could finally break, opening the door for a decline towards $0.14. That would be a drop of nearly 6%.
DOGE is currently trading around $0.18, capped by near-term resistance at $0.20 and $0.21. Overriding this bearish bias would require a daily close above $0.21, which has not been tested since October 13th.
