Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around $0.156, down about 19% in the last month and 11% in the last week. While some large coins are trying to build signs of an early recovery, Dogecoin’s price is doing the opposite. The trend is still tilted to the downside, and the signals forming on the charts and on-chain indicate weakness rather than easing.
The short-term structure shows why the decline in Dogecoin (DOGE) price may continue before any meaningful rise occurs.
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Momentum weakens due to the formation of a hidden bearish divergence
The most obvious problem is with the momentum data. From November 15th to November 18th, Dogecoin price made lower highs, while RSI made higher highs. Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures whether there is strong buying or selling pressure. A hidden bearish divergence is formed when the RSI rises while the price cuts its highs.
Traders should treat this as a continuation warning, meaning there is still room in the existing downtrend.
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This weakness becomes more convincing when looking at long-term DOGE holders. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change shows the number of movements of a coin held for more than 155 days. These wallets are usually sold only in the event of a collapse of belief.
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On November 9th, long-term holders distributed approximately 62.35 million DOGE. By November 19, that number had increased to 237.2 million DOGE. That’s nearly 175 million DOGE in 10 days, a 280% jump. This reflects a clear increase in long-term selling pressure.
Overall, momentum is weakening and holders with strong hands are retreating. This combination makes it easier for short-term rebounds to disappear. On the other hand, downside risks are becoming apparent.
Dogecoin price faces further downside unless it breaks through key levels
As Dogecoin price continues to fall along the trend structure, the next support will come from the predicted levels based on the trend. The first important level is at $0.150, which has repeatedly served as a short-term floor. Losing this support could send the price towards $0.140 and even $0.127 if overall market sentiment weakens.
On the upside, Dogecoin price needs to regain $0.163 to suspend the bearish pattern. A clean move above $0.163 would change enough momentum to target the next major resistance on the chart, $0.186. Until that happens, the downtrend will remain in place and every rebound carries the risk of fading out.
For now, the big picture remains simple. The trend is negative, momentum favors sellers, and long-term holders are still making distributions. Unless Dogecoin starts reclaiming key levels, the trend in Doge price is likely to continue, just not in the direction long traders would like.
