Dogecoin prices have been a volatile week. Memecoin has risen nearly 7% over the past seven days, but the gain has been cancelled after falling almost 7% over the past 24 hours. The decline reflects a widespread cooldown in the cryptocurrency market, but the Dogecoin settings appear to be slightly different.
The chart and on-chain depict a situation in which the risks of accumulation and selling are mixed and divided. While short-term weaknesses remain, hidden bullish signals suggest that the recoil may be subsided, but it is still not without the remaining threats.
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Whale adds DOGE, but exchange balances issue warning
The whale’s activities are quietly turning positive. The wallet, which holds 10 million to 100 million DOGE, increased its holdings from 24.2 billion DOGE on October 2nd to 24.33 billion DOGE. This is an additional DOGE of about 130 million, equivalent to about $32 million at current dogecoin prices.
Stable purchases of this species from medium-sized whales often serve as price support, especially during volatile fluctuations.
However, whether or not you are optimistic is checked by an important indicator of foreign exchange balance. According to Glassnode data, the exchange’s DOGE balance percentage was 17.7%, close to the highest in years, reaching September 20th.
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Historically, such peaks in foreign exchange balances often preceded significant adjustments. For example, when the foreign exchange balance reached 15.57% on April 1, 2024, Dogecoin quickly fell by about 55% over the next few months. A similar pattern was seen after the high of 17.1% on December 9, 2024, followed by a decline of about 65% by April 2025.
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This level means that a larger percentage of the total supply remains on the exchange, making it a coin that can be easily sold. So, while whales are absorbing some of the supply, some of the markets still seem to be ready to take profits or withdraw.
The contrast between whale accumulation and rising foreign exchange balances reflects the push and pull between confidence and vigilance. This is the risk that maintains a low-priced zone despite the seeming rebound.
Dogecoin price chart suggests pullback exhaustion
Dogecoin’s 4-hour chart shows prices respecting the uplift support line within the uplift wedge pattern. The recent rebound from $0.246 suggests that buyers are following that trendline.
Between September 30 and October 7, Dogecoin prices formed a higher low, while the momentum-tracking relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a lower low. This hidden bullish divergence indicates that sellers are often losing their strength and that uptrends could resume.
If support is maintained near $0.246, Dogecoin prices could attempt to rebound towards $0.257, $0.270 and $0.278. However, if that fails and the four-hour candlestick ends under the lower trendline due to the effects of exchange balance risk, it cannot be ruled out that it could fall towards $0.234 or even $0.226.
It is worth noting that in the four-hour time frame, Dogecoin’s price structure remains bearish. Even the smallest negative catalysts can lead to a price drop.
For now, data shows that the market is cold, not collapsed. Whether the dogecoin price drops really ends depends on how long the whales will continue to buy before retail traders begin to follow suit.
