Attention to XRP is increasing as multiple spot ETF filings from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and others appear on the DTCC platform. Among them, Canary’s submission stands out, with the November 13th submission deadline attracting the most attention. In this article, we consider how high XRP price could rise if these spot ETFs receive approval.
Or how sentiment might change if the US government shutdown ends early, resulting in new SEC comments that delay the first launch.
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Whales and owners reduce exposure before decision
Whales holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP are beginning to adjust their positions as the ETF window approaches.
As of November 9, the group controlled 8.38 billion XRP (worth about $20.8 billion at current prices). By November 10, their holdings had fallen to 8.37 billion XRP, a decrease of approximately 10 million XRP, or $25 million in value.
Although this change may seem small, it indicates a decline in confidence among top holders. Their actions often lead to broad sentiment, and despite talk of possible auto-approval of ETFs, this decline indicates mild hesitation.
Hodler’s net position change indicator, which tracks holdings among long-term investors, adds to the alarm. From November 2nd to 3rd, HODLers offloaded approximately 102.5 million XRP. By November 10th, this number had expanded to 135.8 million XRP, with daily outflows increasing by 32%. This means that while the market is rising, holders are steadily making profits, not gaining strength.
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So why do whales hesitate? The answer lies in timing. If the government shutdown continues, Canary’s filing could become effective automatically without SEC review, but if the government reopens early, the SEC staff could issue new comments delaying approval.
Regulatory uncertainty can make even confident traders defensive.
However, Canary is not the only issuer to remove the long-awaited amendment. Franklin Templeton also filed an updated S-1 on Nov. 4, removing the same provision that would have given the SEC control over timing. Originally, Franklin’s XRP ETF approval date was November 14th.
The filing would automatically set a 20-day expiration date, meaning Franklin’s Spot XRP ETF could also be approved around November 24th if the commission does not intervene.
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Rex Ospreay’s precedent and leverage tilt
The last significant moment for the XRP ETF, Rex Osprey’s XRPR launch on September 18th, set a clear pattern. Prices rose nearly 18% before the event, but skyrocketed after the event began as traders sold on the hype.
Currently, XRP is up about 25% since November 3rd, mirroring the same pre-launch rally. Derivatives traders appear to be repeating history. Bybit’s liquidation map shows how exposure stacks up. The long position is approximately $117.66 million while the short position is $72.33 million.
Simply put, the market is heavily tilted long. The chart tracks where leveraged traders could be liquidated, and the data shows a potential cluster between $2.44 and $2.19. If the price falls into that zone, long positions can be quickly unwound, creating a long squeeze and potentially magnifying losses.
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This is probably the same setup seen just before the Rex Ospreay fix. Heavy long bias, over-the-top optimism, and a whale quietly profiting. This similarity suggests that if a Canary ETF were launched during a similar consolidation phase, a “news-selling” reaction could still occur before a sustained breakout.
XRP price fluctuation: How far will it grow?
XRP is trading around $2.48, sitting around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing. This structure remains a descending wedge, typically a bullish formation, but the momentum will only definitively turn positive if the price moves above $2.88.
Upside: A confirmed close above $2.88 could pave the way for $3.34, matching resistance from August. Neutral Zone: Between $2.46 and $2.70, prices are likely to move sideways as ETF speculation fades into macro uncertainty. Downside: Losing $2.31 risks a long squeeze towards the lower end of the wedge at $2.06. This line has only two clean touchpoints, making it more vulnerable to large dips.
The wedge remains bullish in nature, but confidence will only return if XRP regains $2.88 in actual purchase volume. If the shutdown continues and the canary ETF passes through automatically, that breakout could follow quickly.
However, if the SEC re-engages early, new comments could delay the announcement and trigger another short-term sell news pullback before a full-fledged rally occurs.
