Bitcoin (BTC) is on the decline again after falling below the psychological level of $90,000. As the recovery continues, Standard Chartered suggests the recent decline may have come to an end.
Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee also stated that if the Bitcoin price manages to hit a new all-time high this year, the fact that there is a four-year cycle will disappear.
sponsored
Standard Chartered says Bitcoin is headed for a year-end rally
The bank’s head of digital asset research said in an email to clients that the latest pullback is “only a rapid and painful version of the third pullback in the past few years.”
According to Geoff Kendrick, multiple on-chain metrics have reached absolute lows, including MicroStrategy’s mNAV, which currently stands at 1.0.
“My base case is an increase through the end of the year,” Kendrick said in an email.
On-chain analyst Ali highlighted that Bitcoin’s realized loss margin is currently -16%, which is below the -12% threshold that has historically been associated with rebounds.
Additionally, the weekly chart SuperTrend indicator, which has consistently shown significant trend changes since 2014, recently switched to sell mode. Historical signals show an average decline of 61%, indicating the potential for short-term volatility.
“If you apply that average to the current market structure, you see it could be heading towards $40,000,” the analyst said.
These mixed signals reflect a market caught between historical correction patterns and bullish expectations from major financial institutions.
sponsored
Macro context: liquidity and opportunity costs
Despite the global M2 money supply increasing by $7 trillion since late 2024, Bitcoin has struggled to fully capitalize on the surge in liquidity. Endgame Macro explained that while global liquidity pools remain at historically high levels, much of the capital is being absorbed into government bond issuance and short-term financial instruments with yields of 4% to 5%.
“The way I see it, there is a tax on liquidity,” the analyst said.
Speculative assets like Bitcoin face higher opportunity costs because risk-free alternatives offer tangible returns.
This dynamic contributes to volatile trading due to sharp rebounds when shorts become crowded and sudden declines caused by macro jitter. This reflects a more cautious investor environment.
Bullish commentators argue that Bitcoin’s current price reflects undervaluation and suggest that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 as monetary expansion continues. Skeptics, on the other hand, argue that the correlation between liquidity and BTC price is no longer straightforward, citing competing market forces and regulatory moves towards safer assets.
sponsored
Traders and investors should prepare for continued volatility as leverage eases and macro positioning adjusts.
Standard Chartered’s year-end upside forecast rests on the assumption that the downside has run out. Still, risks remain in the form of potential corrections and policy-induced market fluctuations.
On-chain indicators such as realized loss margin and supertrend signals are likely to remain important indicators for determining entry and exit timing.
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin could rebound in line with institutional investors’ expectations or continue to trade as a volatile, low-yielding asset in an increasingly cautious macro environment.
Investors should do their own research and monitor both liquidity flows and policy signals to determine the next price move.
