OFFICIAL TRUMP is showing signs of a short-term recovery after weeks of steady decline, but the move may not be as promising as it seems. The meme coin is trading cautiously as both Bitcoin’s rally and the absence of traders’ enthusiasm limit upside potential.
Current market patterns suggest that the year-end recovery may actually be setting the stage for an even deeper correction in the fourth quarter.
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President Trump loses Bitcoin, affecting entire market
At the moment, the correlation between OFFICIAL TRUMP and Bitcoin is extremely weak, standing at -0.44. Simply put, this means that the price of TRUMP tends to move in the opposite direction to the price of Bitcoin. This inverse relationship could be a challenge, especially since Bitcoin has historically performed well in the fourth quarter.
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If Bitcoin maintains its bullish trajectory into the final months of 2025, TRUMP could face downward pressure. While this decoupling may have protected Memecoin during the previous Bitcoin crash, that same independence could leave Memecoin vulnerable if the overall market consolidates without Memecoin.
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Trump’s future
The funding rate highlights a worrying picture for Trump’s macro outlook. Short positions have dominated the market for longer than long contracts, reflecting growing skepticism among traders. This imbalance points to declining investor confidence and a lack of clear direction, both of which are essential to the recovery.
Without renewed commitment from long-term holders, attempts at a sustainable recovery remain fragile. The lack of positive funding momentum highlights trader caution and the risk that further liquidations could exacerbate downside volatility in the coming weeks.
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TRUMP holders could reverse results
Despite the macro weakness, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator offers a glimmer of hope. Currently, this indicator is hovering around the -10.0 level, which has historically preceded a recovery in TRUMP. This level often indicates an accumulation zone where buyers briefly intervene before a broader correction resumes.
With an ascending wedge forming on the chart, TRUMP could rebound in the short term before facing fresh selling pressure. Although this pattern suggests the possibility of a short-term recovery, an overall bearish structure remains dominant as 2025 draws to a close.
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Trump price may fall
OFFICIAL TRUMP has been trading at $7.86 within an ascending wedge for the past two and a half weeks. This chart formation is usually a bearish signal and often precedes a downturn.
If TRUMP price faces bearish cues from investors or the factors mentioned above, it may fall below the threshold. Weak buying power could widen the decline, potentially leading to a 19% decline towards the support at $6.24.
Alternatively, if the CMF pattern holds, TRUMP could rebound from the lower trendline and move above $8.36 to test $9.00. Although this move would invalidate the near-term bearish outlook, the broader downtrend is still intact.
