XRP price has fallen almost 8% over the past week and has been flat for the past 24 hours, but the lack of red color cannot be mistaken for strength.
Despite one group of investors continuing to buy the bullshit, charts and on-chain data show that XRP is under real pressure.
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Short-term holders continue to buy, but one group disagrees.
HODL Waves, a measure of supply controlled by each holding period group, reveals that two short-term cohorts have been steadily accumulating XRP throughout the month.
On October 16th, wallets holding XRP for 1-3 months controlled 8.94% of the supply. As of November 14th, it holds 9.17%.
Another short-term cohort, the 1 week to 1 month group, increased from 3.74% to 5.53% of supply over the same period.
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Despite the 7.8% decline in XRP price over the past 30 days, these groups have been accumulating and are likely to rebound in the short term.
However, for one important reason, this buying does not seem to be strong enough to push prices higher.
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Hodler Net Position Change, a metric that tracks the supply of long-term investors moving in and out of their wallets, shows that long-term holders are actively selling. On November 3rd, 102.5 million XRP was removed from long-term wallets, indicating a large negative trend. Far from easing, the outflow continued to increase.
By November 14th, that number had jumped to 181.5 million XRP, a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.
This is the main reason why XRP price failed to rebound. Short-term buys are overwhelmed by long-term exits.
Big money retreats, putting pressure on XRP price
On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break out of the 0.618 Fibonacci strong resistance level at $2.26. Upward pressure is waning as capital inflows are rapidly declining.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures buying and selling pressure, has fallen sharply since November 10 and is currently at -0.15, indicating net outflows. CMF has also broken below the downtrend line, indicating that large investors are exiting rather than adding. If the CMF breaks trend support but remains negative, any attempt to move up will usually fail.
If the weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17 and potentially deeper towards $2.06. A break below $2.06 will invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.
The only way to regain momentum is for the daily close to be cleanly above $2.38, a level that has rejected this price many times this month. If this clears, it could open the way to $2.57 and potentially reverse the short-term structure to a bullish one.
