US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to experience outflows as the crypto fear and greed index drops to 11, reflecting extreme fear.
While retail investors have stayed away from the market during this economic downturn, data shows whales have been the main buyers during the decline.
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ETF outflows and retail absence suggest market changes
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to experience capital flight, with holdings decreasing from 441,000 BTC on October 10 to approximately 271,000 BTC by mid-November. This marks a sharp reversal from institutional support earlier this year.
Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded four consecutive days of outflows, according to data from Pharcyde Investors, further reinforcing the defensive trend that has dominated this month. At the beginning of the period, redemptions peaked at well over $800 million in a single day, highlighting how quickly sentiment had deteriorated. The latest figures show the outflow is much lower at around $60 million, but still shows buyers are cautious and momentum has not yet changed.
The spot average order volume indicator shows that retail traders have not returned even though Bitcoin has fallen about 27% from its all-time high of $126,272.76 on October 6th. Trading data from Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and OKX shows larger order sizes, highlighting activity from whales rather than small retail buyers.
The Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 11, highlighting the market’s extreme fear. Historically, such levels have correlated with market bottoms, but retail investors remain cautious and reluctant to engage. In the morning hours in Asia, Bitcoin was trading between $91,000 and $92,000, down more than 3% in 24 hours and 13-14% for the week. Ethereum briefly fell below $3,000, and Solana was around $130, down more than 5% in 24 hours and more than 21% in one week.
Whale accumulation amid market downturn
While individual investors remain on the sidelines, major corporations continue to actively accumulate funds. Based on on-chain monitoring by OnchainLens, the whale purchased 10,275 ETH for $3,032 for 31.16 million USDT in the 24-hour period ending November 17th. From November 12th to November 17th, this address acquired a total of 13,612 ETH for 41.89 million USDT at an average price of $3,077.
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Permanent holders of Bitcoin (wallets that have never recorded an outflow) are supporting what CryptoQuant describes as the biggest accumulation surge during the recent selloff. Perpetual holder demand increased from 159,000 BTC to 345,000 BTC, marking the largest absorption in several cycles. This significant accumulation occurred despite falling prices, highlighting the clear differences between long-term and short-term market behavior.
This disconnect between whale accumulation and retail caution highlights changing market dynamics. However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju points out that the current decline has more to do with long-term holders rotating the coins among themselves, rather than new money entering the market. This suggests that while the current situation may not represent the typical bull-buying moment the retail industry seeks, the drawdown does not signal the beginning of a new bear market.
Structural change and institutional dynamics
This decline is different from past crypto winters. Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, are now accepting Bitcoin as collateral for loans, despite the low price. This evolving infrastructure provides more support compared to previous bear cycles. Deeper liquidity becomes available and helps stabilize the market.
Technical signals remain bearish for now. Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high. Recently, the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, resulting in a “death cross.”
Macroeconomic factors add further pressure. The Fed has delayed interest rate cuts and central banks around the world continue to tighten. Declining liquidity in US Treasuries is a headwind for risk assets. Still, analysts believe that long-term macro trends, such as high government debt levels and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will support Bitcoin in the future.
Mining companies are adjusting accordingly. Frank Holmes, executive chairman of HIVE Digital Technologies, emphasized that the company will continue to mine and hold Bitcoin, unlike its competitors, which have shifted their focus to high-performance computing. He argues that the mine-and-hold strategy will continue despite the volatility because building Tier 3 data centers for GPU work is costly and complex.
