September has proven to be the volatile month of XRP (XRP) and the broader crypto market. Still, Altcoin rose 3.66%, a noticeable reversal from the 8.15% decline in August.
As October begins, the seasonal distortions weaken. Over the past 12 years, XRP has been closed in red during seven Octobers. Still, there are a possibility that some potential catalysts will challenge that pattern in 2025.
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Seasonality vs Catalyst: XRP Sets up for the Important October
According to Cryptorank data, XRP’s average October return was -4.58%, one of the weakest months for Altcoin outside of February and June.
This year, the pattern was held in February, when XRP fell 29.3%. However, the coin ignored seasonality in June, rising 2.95%, beating its seven-year red streak.
With “Uptober” approaching, analysts believe XRP could once again buck the trend and make a profit. At the heart of this potential change is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s impending decision regarding multiple Spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications.
The SEC is expected to control ETF filings from multiple asset managers between October 18th and 25th. These include Grayscale, 21 shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, Wisdom Tree, Coinshare, and Franklin Templeton.
These deadlines follow a wave of applications that many issuers are fighting for approval. If approved, you can unlock a significant institutional influx that could increase the price of XRP. Furthermore, the recent success of the Rex-Soprey XRP ETF has promoted optimism about the potential of the Spot ETF.
Beyond ETFs, advances in the XRP ledger (XRPL) ecosystem are accelerating adoption. In late September, we will be providing integrated security with XRPL to enhance utilities and access.
Additionally, Ripple and Securitize have launched a smart agreement that allows holders of BlackRock’s Buidl and Vaneck’s VBill to exchange stocks in Ripple USD (RLUSD) 24/7 on-chain immediately.
“Making RLUSD available as an exchange option for tokenized funds is a natural next step as it continues to bridge traditional finance and crypto. RLUSD is for institutional use and provides regulatory clarity, stability and practicality, McDonald noted.
In the Decentralized Finance (DEFI) space, FXRP from Flare Network is a one-to-one representation that can be used for XRP, released on the mainnet. In particular, the 5 million FXRP weekly mint cap was fully utilized before the timeline and was a clear signal of early demand and usefulness.
Similarly, Midas’ MXRP liquid staking token issued via Axelar on XRPL’s EVM Sidechain, accumulated a $26 million total value lock (TVL) within six days, highlighting the possibility of an unpublished defi.
So despite the historically weak XRP trends of October, 2025 brings a reliable upside down catalyst.
With SEC Greenlights using Spot XRP ETFs, October could mark a pivotal transition from regulatory uncertainty to mainstream integration, potentially restructuring the XRP trajectory. However, if a rejection or delay arrives or a macro is pulled back, the downside volatility may return.
