Monad has fallen more than 47% from its high since going public in just four days. Monad’s price chart shows a rapid spike immediately after launch followed by a sharp decline, a similar pattern to how Pi Coin traded shortly after launch. Both are new Layer 1 projects that were launched with great traction, but failed shortly after launch.
In this article, we will compare the chart structure and find out if MON is showing the same sustained weakness as Pi Coin or if its own setup is still showing signs of stabilization.
Monad reflects the initial slide after Pi Coin’s listing
Pi Coin lost 86.57% of its value in the first six weeks after listing and is currently down over 91% from its post-launch high.
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Monad followed a similar early path, dropping 47.57% from its all-time high in just four days.
Both graphs show the same initial characteristics.
Fast rising spikes and deep corrections almost instantly
The main difference is the market context. Pi Coin was launched during a strengthening cryptocurrency environment earlier this year. And during the downturn, even though BTC hit new highs in early October, it was unable to recoup even half of its losses.
Monad is entering a weak market with scant liquidity and large assets struggling to maintain momentum. So the odds are certainly not in their favor.
While the price-specific similarities between MON and PI are obvious on the surface, the next step is to look deeper into Monad’s own chart and structure to see if weakness continues or if there are early signs of support forming.
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A large amount of money flow decreases, weakening supply capacity.
Monad’s internal picture becomes even weaker when you examine how the big bucks have moved since the week it went public.
The first signal comes from CMF. CMF tracks whether large buyers are transferring funds into or withdrawing funds from an asset. After an initial spike after launch, the token stabilized near the end of October and became available for CMF use. From that point on, the flow of money moved only in one direction: downward.
Since October 27, CMF has fallen more than 270%, with most of the decline staying below zero. A drop below zero means large buyers are exiting rather than adding support.
Even major market players like Arthur Hayes have expressed doubts about Monad due to the large outflow of capital.
MON’s CMF is currently sitting near its lowest value since the token went live, which typically indicates that confidence from deeper funds has not returned.
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This mirrors what Pi Coin has shown in its first 20 days. The CMF crashed by almost 330% in the early going, and the price fell for several weeks.
The second problem appears in bullbear power readings. BBP measures how much more control buyers and sellers have over momentum. If BBP goes significantly negative while CMF continues to hit new lows, even recovery tends to be short-lived.
Taken together, these signs indicate that Monad has yet to attract strong bids. The MON price chart looks bearish and both indicators show that buyers remain hesitant. Even if there is a short-term rebound, a meaningful reversal will be difficult unless significant capital returns and momentum shifts to the upside.
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If the decline continues, how far can Monad’s price fall?
Now that capital flows have weakened and sellers are in full control, the final piece of the puzzle is the pricing structure itself. The short-term trend on the 4-hour Monad price chart has been pointing down since November 26th, and the candlestick is respecting that slope without any meaningful change.
During this phase, the chart acts like a simple augmented map, with each failed bounce focusing on the next level.
If Monad loses $0.026, the slide could expand towards $0.023, which is the next clear continuation level in the trend-based expansion. If momentum remains weak and capital flows continue to decline, even $0.013 remains on the table as a deeper prediction.
Although these levels seem far away, Pi Coin has also continued to fall since its launch, and the similarities in its initial structure are hard to ignore.
Any recovery attempt should start above $0.029. This alone stabilizes the structure. An actual shift will only appear if Monad closes above $0.039 and then above $0.040.
A break above these bands could disrupt the current slope, rebuild confidence, and weaken comparisons with Pi Coin’s initial chart.
For now, Monad is trading at both of these marks, with money flows still near the lows and momentum maintained by sellers. Unless these two conditions are reversed, the path of least resistance will remain at the bottom and the similarities with Pi Coin will persist.
