Stellar (XLM) has been trending lower over the past month, dropping 14.7% as overall market sentiment weakened. However, over the past week, XLM prices have been trading nearly flat, suggesting the correction may be nearing an end.
Several key on-chain and technical indicators suggest that the XLM buyer-seller conflict may soon collapse in favor of the bulls. Keep reading to find out how.
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Visible battle between buyers and sellers
On the daily chart, XLM trades inside a symmetrical triangle. This pattern forms when buyers and sellers have equal prices.I got it. This reflects indecision, with falling highs and rising lows compressing the price into a tighter range before the breakout.
The current pattern has only two touchpoints each on both the upper and lower trendlines of the triangle, indicating that the structure is relatively weak on both sides. This setup suggests that a breakout can occur with the slightest push from buyers or sellers.
With neither side establishing firm control, even a short-term burst of momentum could determine the next direction. This formation captures a true buyer-seller stalemate, with small price movements testing confidence but no clear trend can be discerned. This means that the next breakout may depend on which side acts first, not necessarily which side is stronger.
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This setup comes after a three-month decline of more than 19%, so even a small rebound could be the start of a larger recovery phase if it gains momentum.
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Selling pressure is rapidly weakening
The Wyckoff volume chart, which tracks buying and selling dominance with color-coded bars, supports this view. The yellow bar representing sales activity has been steadily shrinking since yesterday. This decline indicates that sellers are gradually retreating while buyers begin to absorb the available supply.
Interestingly, a similar pattern was seen from October 17th to 18th, with sales volumes declining immediately before XLM prices rose by 15.1%. Now, the same structure appears to be re-forming, reinforcing the view that the downside is near exhaustion. However, to fully see seller-specific weaknesses, you should see blue or green bars.
Key levels to watch for XLM price rebound
Zooming in on the chart shows that XLM price continues to hold the lower trendline of the triangle, showing that $0.30 remains a strong support level. If the price sustains above this level of $0.30, it is likely to head towards $0.33, completing the 7.8% recovery.
A break above $0.33 could pave the way for $0.35 and eventually $0.39. Note that a push above $0.33 will break the upper trendline of the triangle, but since this line has only two touchpoints, it is already considered weak as well.
This indicates that if the XLM price reaches a peak, it may be easier to break the top than to break the top.
However, if XLM loses $0.30, the next important support is located around $0.28. However, a break above $0.30 would mean a break in the trend line and could push the XLM price lower.
For now, the fading Wyckoff sell signal and a stable base around $0.30 point to optimism. This means that unless market conditions deteriorate, buyers may finally be taking back control of Stellar (XLM) price structure.
