XRP price has failed to join Bitcoin and Ethereum in weekly gains and is still trading within a narrow band that has remained since mid-November.
Meanwhile, one of the on-chain bullish signals reached a three-month high. This is usually a strong setup for recovery. However, the XRP price has hardly moved. Let’s understand why.
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Dormant stocks hit three-month high, but long-term holders continue to sell
The story begins with a used coin. Spent Coins measures how many old XRP tokens move each day, and that metric has collapsed from 186.36 million XRP on November 15 to just 16.32 million XRP now. This was a significant decrease of 91% and the lowest level in three months.
Once the old supply stops, selling pressure drops sharply. That is why dormancy, which increases as spent coins decrease, is currently at its strongest level in three months. Under normal market conditions, this change alone would support an increase in XRP price.
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However, the XRP price has not reacted as the criminal group is moving in the opposite direction.
HODL Waves, which tracks the supply held by each age group, has shown a clear distribution of older holders over the past month. The 6-12 month cohort decreased from 26.18% of supply to 21.65%. The rate for the 1st-2nd year group decreased from 9.34% to 8.61%. The rate also decreased from 14.58% to 14.12% in the 2-3 year cohort.
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These groups form the backbone of trend strength because they control supply that rarely moves. If they reduce their share, any attempt to move up will lose power.
This also explains why even the recent whale purchases discussed earlier were not enough to drive XRP prices higher. Whale exposure is increasing, but continued outflow from older owners still exceeds demand. Dormancy alone cannot cause a breakout until the long-term supply from these populations ceases.
XRP price needs to close above $2.28 to escape that range
The chart reflects the same tug of war. XRP price has been stuck between $2.28 and $1.81 since November 15th, and has never closed above $2.28. This remains an important line that must be crossed to build momentum. If the move above $2.28 is successful, the next targets will be $2.56 and $2.69, areas where XRP has reacted strongly so far.
However, if the price closes below $1.98, the current structure will weaken and a return to $1.81 will become more likely.
For now, the message is clear. Dormant status is at a three-month high as spent coins are at a three-month low, but long-term holders are still continuing to distribute. Until these believers stabilize and the daily candlestick closes above $2.28, XRP price will remain within that range.
