October was not a favorable situation for XRP price. This month, the token has fallen over 12%, mirroring a similar downturn seen in October 2024. As November begins, traders are wondering whether XRP can repeat its historic November performance, which saw it rise more than 280% last year. XRP traders might be happy with just a fraction of that.
On-chain data currently shows a mixed picture. Most holders are selling, a few whales are accumulating, and the price is trading within a narrow pattern that could go either way.
Long-term and short-term holders are still cashing out.
The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks the difference between XRP entering and exiting long-term wallets, shows that long-term holders are cashing out more aggressively.
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On October 19th, the outflow amount was -3.28 million XRP, but by October 30th, the outflow amount had increased to -90.14 million XRP.
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This represents a 2,647% increase in XRP net outflows in two weeks, indicating that long-term investors are accelerating the sell-off rather than slowing it down.
The Hodl Waves chart of XRP supply divided by age range shows a similar pattern among short-term holders. The supply share of 1-3 month stocks, which represent relatively new investors, has plummeted from 12.98% at the beginning of October to just 7.85% now, a significant decrease of 39.5%. This steady decline shows that short-term traders are exiting as volatility increases.
Interestingly, November has historically been the strongest month for XRP, with an average gain of +88% and a median gain of +25%.
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However, its strength often depended on accumulation by the same population. Therefore, with the current selling pressure, the chances of the whales performing again this year are limited unless they step in to fill the gap.
Whales are quietly gathering for November
While small investors are reducing their exposure, large wallet addresses are quietly accumulating.
Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have significantly increased their holdings in the past two weeks. Their total hidden assets increased from 6.97 billion XRP on October 16th to 8.24 billion XRP on October 31st. This is an increase of 1.27 billion XRP, equivalent to approximately $3.15 billion at the current price of $2.48.
This is in contrast to intermediate whales holding 1 million to 10 million XRP, which were net short for much of October. But the tide may be turning. Between October 28th and 30th, their balance increased from 6.28 billion to 6.31 billion, adding approximately 30 million XRP worth approximately $74 million.
The recovery of this medium-sized whale stock often indicates early stabilization and is an important precursor to a sustainable rise.
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StealthEx CEO Maria Carola believes this change indicates a more mature market structure. In doing so, she also revealed several key levels at which accumulation clusters can form.
“The current XRP market structure reflects mature dynamics characterized by prudent accumulation and disciplined exposure. A strong support base has formed around the $2.60 to $2.63 range, which is a key pivot zone that will determine the near-term direction,” she said.
It will also be interesting to see if these motivated whales can offset the cohort-specific selling pressure in November.
Supply Zones, XRP Price Levels, and What Could Cause the Next Move
A cost-based distribution heatmap showing where most tokens were last purchased highlights two zones of high supply standing in front of XRP.
The first one is around $2.52-2.54 and has accumulated about 1.23 billion XRP. This explains why XRP has been unable to sustain above $2.59 many times.
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The second, stronger wall is between $2.80 and $2.82, with approximately 1.88 billion XRP being purchased. This key zone will determine whether the XRP price can enter a sustained uptrend.
At the same time, the two-day price chart shows that XRP is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This reflects the tug of war between buyers and sellers. The lower trendline has only two touchpoints and is relatively weak, increasing the likelihood of a short-term decline if selling resumes.
Maria Carola adds perspective and more weight to the $2.59 XRP price level mentioned above.
“As long as XRP remains above $2.60, there remains a trend with little upside resistance. If supported by new capital rotation, it can move above $2.67 to $2.70, and if there are macro tailwinds, it could re-test $3,” he said.
A break above $2.81 (as seen in the heatmap) will further strengthen the bullish trend. If that happens, the price could rise to $3.10 or even $3.66. On the downside, if the price falls below $2.28, it could fall towards $2.08.
However, a wave of selling and a weak lower trendline make it more likely to fall if market conditions deteriorate. And that would extend the XRP price correction before attempting a recovery.
